FX Holden | Updates

Iran War: what they said and what it means... #1

FX Holden — Wed, 4 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What they said: US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine announced on March 2 that “local air superiority has been established [over Iran].”

What it means: "Local" air superiority means temporary control over a defined area and time window.

In a large country like Iran this probably means dominance over major cities or specific regions. This is one step down from unqualified air superiority since it means there are still areas of Iran where air defenses are operating and pose a threat.

The use of B-1 bombers in Iran (announced yesterday) demonstrates that the US is degrading Iranian air defenses to the point that it feels comfortable using older-generation non-stealth aircraft to conduct attacks in Iran now.

Ironically the biggest threat to USAF appears to be enthusiastic amateurs.

What they said: “Several U.S. fighter jets have crashed over Kuwait," Kuwait's military has confirmed.

What it means: "We accidentally shot them down ourselves, then they crashed."

CENTCOM said three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles were engaging Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles and drones at around 7 p.m. local time when they were hit by friendly fire. All six aircrew ejected safely, the command said in a statement Monday.

Ejected safely does not mean 'escaped uninjured.' Six US servicemembers have been killed in the war with Iran thus far. The servicemembers were killed in an Iranian attack on Camp Arifjan in Kuwait on March 1. Eighteen US service members have been seriously wounded in the war to 2 Mar, according to CENTCOM Spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins.

What they said: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that four ballistic missiles were fired towards the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. "Following the proud actions of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the attack on American-Zionist enemy targets, the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier of the US Army was attacked with four ballistic missiles."

What it means: We missed.

Iran has previously claimed its anti-ship ballistic missiles have home-on-radar and active seeker capabilities that allow them to hit moving ships at sea (Hormuz-2). The US did not disclose whether the missiles were intercepted in flight, or just missed, but the latter seems likely from this comment from CENTCOM. "Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE. The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close."

#OperationEpicFury #OperationRoaringLion #IranWar2026 #USIsraelStrikesIran #TehranUnderAttack #MiddleEastConflict #IranRetaliation #GlobalSecurity #IranCrisis

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The US and Israel are trying to achieve regime change in Iran - what are the chances?

FX Holden — Tue, 3 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Historians and analysts who looks for precedents will tell you the historical record of air power suggests that while a "strategic air offensive" can degrade an adversary’s military and industrial capacity, it is almost never a sufficient tool for forcing regime change on its own.

They will cite the failure of Germany's WW2 Blitz, the Allies Strategic Bombing of Germany, or Russia's missile and drone campaign in Ukraine. They'll tell you 'sure' the NATO air campaign in Serbia/Kosovo in 1999 resulted months later in the removal of Slobodan Milošević, but that was the result of a well-organized internal democratic opposition (Otpor), and the credible threat of a looming NATO ground invasion, neither of which are the case in Iran.

But here's where it MIGHT work: redefine 'regime change' along the lines the US recently achieved in Venezuela. Call it the FLIP model - the removal of the current hostile leadership and its replacement with one more 'amenable'. THAT could be possible.

One scenario that fits the FLIP model is the "Praetorian Coup" scenario which sees the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) so existentially weakened that to survive, its officers sideline the clerical establishment to transform the state from a theocracy into a military-led nationalist autocracy.

This transition would require a leadership vaccuum such as the Supreme Leader's death (check) and the clerics' nomination of a candidate the military doesn't support (pending). The IRGC must fail to inflict severe damage on its enemies (pending) and there has to be sufficient attrition of the IRGC's capabilities/leadership that it sees an existential threat to its ability to retain power (underway). And so it FLIPS - ditches the clerics in a palace coup, installing a military junta.

This "Western-leaning" shift would not be a transition to democracy, but rather a pivot toward a state model similar to Egypt’s, where the military maintains internal control while seeking international legitimacy to restart the economy.

The junta then makes a "survivalist bargain" regarding the nuclear program. To halt US or Israeli military strikes and trigger the lifting of crippling sanctions, the IRGC junta would offer to freeze or dismantle key nuclear assets in exchange for a ceasefire and economic guarantees. For the West, a "junta they can do business with" provides a more stable, predictable alternative to the chaos of a total state collapse or a protracted insurgency.

The people of Iran would be freed from religious oppression, but still find themselves living in an autocracy. That's still 'success' if the US/Israeli campaign objective is a Venezuelan style FLIP, not a transition to democracy.

But it aint going to be a cakewalk.

(Pictured, IRGC on parade.)

#OperationEpicFury #OperationRoaringLion #IranWar2026 #USIsraelStrikesIran #TehranUnderAttack #MiddleEastConflict #IranRetaliation #GlobalSecurity #IranCrisis

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Interested in being a beta reader for Blue Shield?

FX Holden — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Hey there! The first unproofed draft of Blue Shield will be ready for beta reading next week and I'd love to hear from you if you'd like to volunteer to help as a beta reader, especially if you are a current or former armed forces member (any service!)

Details on the novel here: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

What do I ask of my volunteer beta readers?

Not proofreading - that is done professionally after your input (though all errors flagged are appreciated!)
Help with authenticity - military jargon, dialogue, weapons and weapon systems, tactics, technical details
Reader experience - your thoughts on plot, pacing, characters and their stories, who should live, who should die!

You get: the first uncut gem of a draft of my new novel, and an Amazon ebook voucher in exchange for your honest review!

You can join a discussion group on Facebook to exchange your thoughts and ask questions, or wait for a survey I send out at the end of 3 weeks. I will then ask you to write a one or two sentence honest review of the book once it is published. Being an active participant is essential. If you'd just like a free read, you can see the free preview of Blue Shield here! https://BookHip.com/RSQVGBQ

This offer is exclusive to my mailing list subscribers. I have a limited number of new spots on the beta team, and they fill fast, so please raise your hand if you are interested!

Reply to fxholden@yandex.com!

Cheers,

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FX asks what the next four years could look like for Ukraine...

FX Holden — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Today the Ukraine-Russia war enters its fifth year. Either you believe Ukraine is winning and it should persevere, or you believe it is losing and should sue for peace. Which is it*?

(*I am summarizing consensus views here, not my own.)

💀The Case for "Ukraine is Losing"💀

Territory: The trend is one of (extremely) slow, grinding Russian progress. Ukraine has not regained significant territory since late 2022, and the defensive lines are under immense pressure in the Donbas. Compared with Ukraine, Russia has near limitless manpower reserves and unless its economy collapses (limited signs of that so far), Putin is banking on Russia outlasting Ukraine.

Lives: Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis. With a smaller population than Russia, it cannot sustain a war of attrition indefinitely. Every soldier lost is a deeper wound to the country’s future recovery. After four years of war, young men approaching conscription age are fleeing the country, soldiers are deserting and though general conscription is needed, the government and public resist it. Ukraine has crippling manpower problems in the military, and in society.

Economy: The cost to Ukraine, and of supporting Ukraine, is astronomical. Over 30% of Ukraine's GDP was lost in the initial wake of the invasion. Infrastructure damage exceeds $150 billion, and the country is entirely dependent on unreliable Western political will for survival. EU loans needed to keep the lights on in Ukraine in 2026 are being held up by pro-Russian Hungary and Slovakia. It is hard to see how Ukraine's defense can be funded this year, let alone into the future.

🔥The Case for "Ukraine is Winning"🔥

Territory: After four years of war Russia occupies only 20% of the country and most of that was captured in the first year. Ukraine has successfully halted major advances over the last two years and even won back lost territory in the last couple of weeks. The "trend" is a static front where Russia pays an exorbitant price in equipment and men for increments of meters, not kilometers. At this "garden snail" pace, even reaching a major objective like Kyiv would take decades. As long as Ukraine survives as a sovereign nation, it is winning.

Lives: Proponents argue that the casualty ratio heavily favors Ukraine. By fighting a defensive war of attrition, Ukraine is systematically dismantling the Russian military’s long-term offensive capability. The harsh political reality is that Ukrainian lives are buying Europe time to arm itself to deter further Russian aggression. Putin's larger war aim was to push NATO back to its 1991 borders and rewrite the European security architecture. It is naive to think if victorious in Ukraine he would stop so whatever Ukraine does to frustrate this aim, is a victory for Ukraine, and Europe.

Economy: Ukraine remains integrated into the Western financial and security architecture. Despite the damage, its economy has stabilized with international aid, while Russia’s economy is increasingly distorted by defense industrial spending, total reliance on oil and gas revenues, and long-term isolation. An increasing willingness in the EU to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, to restrict Russia's resource revenues, and target its shadow fleet of oil and gas transports is bearing fruit. Putin's war is not economically sustainable. He will eventually have to settle for peace on terms more favorable to Ukraine than his current maximalist demands.

So where do you land? Is Ukraine winning? Or should it cut its losses and sue for peace?

All wars end. A ceasefire will come eventually. Ukraine's PM, Zelensky, is convinced Russia would resume its war after regrouping. He told the BBC this week, ""It would probably satisfy him for a while... he needs a pause... but once he recovers, our European partners say it could take three to five years. In my opinion, he could recover in no more than a couple of years. Where would he go next? We do not know, but that he would want to continue is a fact."

⚔️In that scenario, what would happen if the Coalition of the Willing (NATO nations) responded with RESOLVE at the first signs of renewed agression. What if they called Russia's bluff instead of dithering and delaying? Here's what that could look like:

https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

⚔️Preorder now and save 60% on the launch price!

#UkraineWar #Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics #KindleDeals #BookBargains

Sources used to prepare this post:

Russia Matters (Harvard Kennedy School) - Feb 2026 Report

Council on Foreign Relations - Global Conflict Tracker

Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

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Got any tips for books on Iran?

FX Holden — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Iran is in the headlines, so what's on your shelves? (Or in your Kindle). I've read these:

The Persian (2025, 4.2 on Goodreads) by David McCloskey: Written by a former CIA analyst, this recent release opens with a surprise strike on Iran and follows a CIA officer and an Iranian official attempting to prevent a regional collapse.

Protect and Defend (2007, 4.4) by Vince Flynn: Part of the Mitch Rapp series. After a strike on an Iranian nuclear facility, the U.S. faces a retaliatory plot from a Hezbollah mastermind. Capture or Kill is also supposedly good (haven't read it tho.)

The Tehran Initiative (2011, 4.4) by Joel C. Rosenberg: A political thriller focusing on a CIA operative working to stop an Iranian nuclear threat before a full-scale U.S./Israeli military intervention becomes inevitable.

The Island (2021, 4.7) by Ben Coes: Features a massive Iranian-led attack on Manhattan and the United Nations. It includes a U.S. retaliatory strike on the Iranian Presidential Palace in Tehran.

And for getting inspiration on a topic (like Iran) I always go to BookDNA first ... much better than Goodreads because it is curated.

https://bookdna.com/bookshelf/iran

Oh, and of course I should give my own a plug - have you read GOLAN (4-5 on Goodreads)?

GOLAN, This is the Future of War, asks a question few want to consider. What will happen if Iran acquires nuclear weapons in the next ten years? In true Future of War style, GOLAN explores the question through the eyes of front line participants on all sides, in a conflict set ten years into the future. Featuring military tech that is on the drawing boards today and characters you won’t easily forget, GOLAN throws the reader straight into the center of a nuclear storm and doesn’t ease up.

https://www.amazon.com/GOLAN-This-Future-War-ebook/dp/B093QLRV84

Any recommendations from your shelves?

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Beachhead brings it!

FX Holden — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What a great coincidence! Just got this half price deal from my audiobook publisher:

https://www.audiobooks.com/promotions/promotedBook/760452/beachhead?refId=239324

At the same time as this reader review ticked in!

J. M Ullman

5.0 out of 5 stars Sensational

Reviewed in the United States on February 12, 2026

Brilliant. realistic. Troubling. Super well written with great characters and plots. Among the best of its genre I have ever read.

All Aggressor novels are available on audio - jump in (or jump back in) NOW! See the audio catalogue here:

https://www.audible.com/author/FX-Holden/B07J47L7KB

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Is Ukraine the next Korea?

FX Holden — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Are we headed for a permanent Korea-style partition of Ukraine? This question has been on my mind as Abu Dhabi hosts the latest round of trilateral 'peace talks'. For the geopolitics geeks like me, the parallels to the Korean War 1953 are impossible to ignore: a grinding war of attrition, a frozen frontline, and two sides unable to achieve total victory but unwilling to concede defeat.

The "Yes, Korea" case rests on the stark reality of the current map. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, and despite significant Western aid, the frontline has moved only incrementally over the past year. Like the 38th Parallel, today’s line of contact is becoming a de facto border, enforced not by treaty, but by millions of mines, drone walls and deep trench networks that neither side can decisively pierce. An armistice may well be the only way to stop the "meat grinder" while allowing Ukraine to rebuild.

In this scenario, Kyiv would not legally cede land but would accept a "frozen" status. This would enable the remaining 80% of the country to flourish as a modern, high-tech democracy—much as South Korea transformed from a war-torn agrarian society into a global economic titan.

Security guarantees are the linchpin of this comparison. South Korea’s survival was predicated on the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty and the permanent presence of U.S. "tripwire" troops. For Ukraine, 2026 has brought concrete discussions of a "Coalition of the Willing," with several European nations pledging to deploy troops for post-war monitoring and defense to ensure Moscow does not simply use a ceasefire to re-arm.

(One possible future: BLUE SHIELD by FX HOLDEN. Preorder now! https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if.../dp/B0G3LDN8DG)

However, the "Not Korea" case highlights fundamental differences that could make a Korea-style peace fragile or impossible. Unlike the Korean Peninsula, which is a defined geographic tip, the 1,000km Ukrainian front is largely open plain. Maintaining a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) of this scale would require a multinational force far larger than anything currently being debated in Brussels or Washington.

Furthermore, the political "will to win" in Moscow remains a massive obstacle. While the 1953 armistice followed the death of Joseph Stalin, Vladimir Putin remains firmly in power in 2026, viewing any sovereign, Western-aligned Ukraine as an existential threat. Critics argue that a ceasefire without a clear path to NATO or EU membership is merely a "tactical pause" for the Kremlin.

Demographics also tell a different story. South Korea had a burgeoning youth population to drive its "Miracle on the Han River." Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis, with millions of citizens displaced abroad and a birth rate at historic lows. A permanent partition could starve the remaining Ukrainian state of the human capital needed for a Korean-style economic surge.

The role of the United States is the ultimate variable. The 2026 geopolitical landscape is defined by an American administration pushing for "operational realism," shifting the burden of European security back onto the Europeans. Without a permanent U.S. "backstop" similar to the Eighth Army in Seoul, any "DMZ" in Donbas remains a high-risk gamble.

There is also the question of internal Ukrainian politics. President Zelenskyy faces immense pressure to maintain "territorial integrity," making the formal acceptance of a frozen line a potential flashpoint for domestic unrest. Unlike 1953, where the armistice was signed by military commanders, a 2026 deal requires the signature of leaders who must answer to an exhausted but defiant electorate.

Economically, a partition would create two radically different "Ukraines", just as it did for North and South Korea. The occupied East would likely become a stagnant, improverished, militarized Russian province, while the West would integrate into the European single market. This divergence would create a "Berlin Wall" effect in the east of Europe, birthing a new Cold War frontier for decades to come.

Yet, as temperatures in Ukraine drop to -20°C and the energy grid remains under constant drone bombardment, the "least bad" option begins to look like a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitically, a Korea-style outcome is rarely a choice; it is an exhaustion-driven acknowledgment of a stalemate that neither side can afford to break.

The security guarantees currently being drafted—incorporating "advanced strike capabilities" and "integrated air defense"—are designed to make the cost of a Russian breach prohibitively high. This "deterrence by denial" is the modern equivalent of the 1950s tripwire, intended to turn a temporary ceasefire into a permanent, if tense, peace.

Ultimately, the Korea model is not about "peace" in the romantic sense; it is about "stability." The 'parallels' are frightening (see what I did there?)

If Ukraine can secure its borders, even at the cost of temporarily sacrificing territory, it can begin the generational task of reconstruction and European integration. The "South Korea of the East" remains a powerful, if painful, vision for the future.

We are currently watching the blueprint of 1953 being redrawn for the 21st century. Whether this leads to a "miracle" or a "menace" depends entirely on the depth of the security guarantees and the speed of Ukraine’s economic recovery. The guns may soon fall silent, but the "war" of systems—democracy vs. autocracy—is only just beginning its long, frozen phase.

The next few months of negotiations will determine if the "38th Parallel" of Europe becomes a reality. As the dust settles on the Abu Dhabi talks, the world must prepare for a Ukraine that is divided by force, but united in its aspiration to thrive behind a new, high-tech Iron Curtain.

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Military #Europe #NATO #UkraineRussiaWar #Defense #Security #Geopolitics #Strategy

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Hot off the press preview of Blue Shield by FX Holden

FX Holden — Fri, 6 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Grab your FREE preview chapter here!

https://dl.bookfunnel.com/ptr1vg5lq6

And preorder now to help a starving author's new book off to a good start, and save 50% on the list price for yourself!!

PREORDER: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

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Two FX Holden freebies!

FX Holden — Tue, 3 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

If you love a good action thriller and haven't read ORBITAL, US readers can grab it here for free this week. There are 7 books in the FUTURE WAR series and this is a good example. They all take a potential conflict, bubbling just below the surface and play it out a few years into the future, with the weapons systems that are on the drawing board today.

AJ is a maintenance tech at Sol Vista care facility. He likes the quiet life. Visiting with his ma. A burger at Fatty's. Surfing the Shifting Sea. Staying in flow. But his flow gets sorely disrupted when a new resident moves into Sol Vista and AJ soon finds himself on the run from an interplanetary assassin, trying to track down a hacker otherwise known as Destroyer of Worlds, all so he can save the life of his new girlfriend, who turns out NOT to be the laid back, Territorian skater girl he thought she was. Sometimes the flow is hard to find, even for a cyber.

US readers can get DEEP CORE free here: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07VM9W738

Not in the USA? Don't worry, freebies coming your way soon!

Cheers

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January update & Iran prognosis

FX Holden — Sat, 31 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Hey there!

Wow, crazy year already, right, and it's only January. Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland ... I have to admit the news is coming so fast I tune it out sometimes to immerse myself in research and writing. And then I tune in again and ... Iran. My thoughts on that one are at the end of this newsletter if you are interested.

But what's next regarding FX Holden novels? I am about 2/3rds finished with BLUE SHIELD, my next 'What-if' speculative novel after World War H. These are novels that spring from asking myself 'what-if?' In this case, assuming some kind of security guarantees are offered to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire, what-if Russia breaks the ceasefire and NATO nations actually step up and call Russia's bluff?

You can pre-order BLUE SHIELD today, get the ebook half price, and help a starving author's book off to a good launch!

US https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

CA: https://www.amazon.ca/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

AU: https://www.amazon.com.au/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

Next up is one for the Bunny O'Hare fans, a follow up to Antarctica STORM and Africa STORM: Global STORM.

The setup: Aggressor Inc.'s billionaire owner, Mark Aaronsen, has entered the space race and licensed US antimatter tech to power the first crewed mission to Mars. But he needs a volunteer for the test flight. Who would be crazy enough to put their hand up for what could be a one-way ticket to eternity? Who else...

This novel will see anti-hero Karen 'Bunny' O'Hare catapulted into a new and terrifying conflict, from which she will not return.

(And speaking of new and terrifying conflicts...)

What is happening inside Iran as the US military buildup continues?

Here's a former intel officer's take. A month ago I wrote: "The US (and Israel) will increase covert support for protest groups inside Iran. Unless drought conditions in the Tehran region ease, the city will face apocalyptic water shortages and regime continuity will be threatened. This creates an opportunity for US/Israeli military or covert intelligence operations — assassinations, sabotage, and destabilization."

That's what's happening right now. As the carrier strike group moves in, the US CIA and Israeli Mossad are actively working with protest organizers inside Iran to ensure they are prepared if/when US military strikes aimed at destabilising the regime are used. That's why the US is not rushing to put the pieces in place (they could attack tomorrow with assets already in theater if they wanted to) - influence and destablisation networks take time to co-opt, activate and prepare.

But what comes next? Fantastic analysis by Frank Gardener of the BBC here on 7 possible outcomes:

audio https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/p0mxv9j2

article https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3kenge1k9o

In short, they are:

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies 'Venezuela style'

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule (a highly likely outcome)

4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbours

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos (doomsday scenario, also highly possible)

Which of these do YOU think are most likely?

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Hot new reviews for World War H!

FX Holden — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

World War H has been getting rave reviews from readers and trade press alike, averaging 4.6/5 on Amazon on Goodreads, and picking up reviews like this one from Publishers Weekly BookLife:

“EPIC MILITARY THRILLER”

Publishers’ Weekly BookLife

https://www.amazon.com/World-War-What-if.../dp/B0FL1BCZHN

Holden’s tech-thriller epic may inaugurate a new series, but the conflicts that World War H depicts—with Holden’s familiar crispness, clarity, and power—prove frightening in their contemporary resonance. Facing escalating attacks on countless fronts, as young people around the world are goaded by popular video game Payback into committing crimes for money, the U.S. president in Holden’s 2029 tells the public, “It seems we are at war, people, and not the kind of war any of us foresaw.” Privately, he carps “I would love to just throw a 2,000 lb. bomb at this problem.” That’s impossible, of course, when the adversaries are unknown and their arsonists and assassins could be any online kid on the planet. As the NSC debates how to shut down a seemingly imminent “Payback Day,” another world-shaking threat looms: the U.S. and China, jockeying for position at the Panama Canal.

Readers of Holden’s high-flying military thrillers will not be surprised to discover that China’s plans in the Caribbean will soon lead to wild jet battles, tense negotiations, and an alphabet’s worth of cool weapons and hardware. As always, the HARMs, MALDs, JSOWs, and JASSMs get introduced with quick efficiency; despite the ample page count, Holden’s plots, like his pilots, favor speed. As befits a sprawling story of hybrid warfare, the plot encompasses a winning variety of scenarios, from the maneuverings of aircraft carriers to street-level Payback “gigs” to an Eastern European prison extraction to tense negotiations between world leaders.

Amid the many high-ranking officials, perhaps the most fascinating figure is Detroit teenager Tayla, who sees Payback as a chance to get ahead in a punishing system. Holden’s linking of the gig economy to video game quests and terrorism is inspired, though readers should understand that much of the novel concerns maritime military action. Holden again dignifies participants on all sides of his imagined-but-plausible conflicts with perspective chapters that emphasize everyone’s common humanity without slowing down the narrative. The scope is wide but the action is intimate. Lovers of realistic war games will feast.

Takeaway: Smart, epic military thriller linking the gig economy to terrorism.

#MilitaryThriller #ActionThriller #WarFiction #TechnoThriller #ModernWarfare #PoliticalThriller #SpecOps #GlobalConflict #NearFutureFiction #KindleBooks #KindleUnlimited

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Prediction time: 2026!

FX Holden — Sun, 11 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Last year my predictions for what would happen in the conflicts in Sudan, Burma, Iran and Syria all came to pass. Unfortunately, some would say! So what do I see happening in the major conflicts of 2026?

Ukraine

In 2025 Russian troops advanced at (literally) less than a snail's pace, at enormous cost in lives and rubles. Russia will continue to make slow, costly progress in 2026 until Putin is stopped, more likely by his worsening economy than any intervention by external forces. Only then might he agree a ceasefire — purely to allow his economy to recover, and his shattered military to regenerate. He will therefore have a big focus in any negotiations on obtaining economic concessions (reduced sanctions, readmission to G8, unfreezing of assets) as a precondition for a ceasefire, and may be willing to compromise on his maximalist ceasefire conditions if he gets these. Likewise the pressure on Ukraine from its western partners to accept onerous ceasefire conditions may be irresistible.

But if China, India (and some EU states) continue to prop up Russia's economy with petrogasdollars, and Ukraine's resolve remains intractable, the war will simply grind on. Chances of a ceasefire in 2026? Low, but not zero.

Venezuela

The US administration has already achieved its first priority in this conflict, the removal of the dictator Maduro, forcing his government to “bend the knee” to Washington and allow US oil companies and other commercial interests back in on advantageous terms. If the surviving Maduro regime is perceived as difficult to deal with, military action to remove it and install a US-friendly regime will follow.

Next in the crosshairs — not Cuba (there is little more the US can do to pressure Cuba short of invasion). A more likely target for economic and military pressure is Colombia . To quote the US President's warning to Colombian President Gustavo Petro: “He better watch his ass.”

(Like military fiction? https://www.amazon.com/stores/FX-Holden/author/B07J47L7KB)

Greenland

The US will not invade or annex Greenland. It doesn’t have to in order to “acquire” it during the current Presidential term. Citing national/international security concerns, the US might remilitarize Greenland — reopening closed bases and airfields and ramping up its military presence. This can be done already with virtually no restrictions under its existing treaty with Denmark. But the international security issue is a red herring, this is simply about future control of resources.

So, US influence operations will intensify. In 2026 or early 2027, while pushing for a referendum on joining USA, the US will again “offer to buy Greenland” — not via Denmark, but directly to Greenland’s 54,000 residents using tactics like checks paid directly to Greenland citizens, offers of massive US investment, shares in a US-backed sovereign wealth fund, and eventual statehood . Active resistance from Denmark will be met with sanctions and tariffs. The EU will protest — and as usual, do nothing.

Russian hybrid war vs Ukraine-supporting nations (EU, UK)

Due to lack of meaningful response from EU and UK this will intensify, with a growing number of acts of sabotage, undersea cable breaks, cyber and infrastructure attacks and assassinations. These attacks will continue unless the EU/UK respond in kind with counter-attacks inside Russia, which they will not do.

Iran

The US (and Israel) will increase covert support for protest groups inside Iran. Unless drought conditions in the Tehran region ease, the city will face apocalyptic water shortages and regime continuity will be threatened. This creates an opportunity for US/Israeli military or covert intelligence operations — assassinations, sabotage, and destabilization.

A Maduro-style capture of one or more senior military or clerical leaders is possible. Recall what the US President wrote during the 12-day war: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” After Venezuela, that threat has to be taken seriously and that day may come in 2026 .

Myanmar

After losing control of roughly 80% of the country in 2025, the junta is experiencing waning support from traditional allies such as China and Russia. It will collapse in 2026. Its leaders will flee — to Beijing (Macau casinos) or Moscow . Chaos, not peaceful elections, will follow as rival rebel factions vie for power.

Gaza

The US-brokered ceasefire is fragile and will effectively collapse in 2026. Hamas has refused — and will continue to refuse — to disarm. Israel will not withdraw from the 50% of Gaza it still controls. Full-scale conflict will resume, framed by the US and Israel as a “limited operation to disarm Hamas” .

Sudan

Deeply fragmented, persistent hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces will continue, driving a worsening humanitarian catastrophe .

Yemen

Saudi Arabia backs the internationally recognised Yemeni government. The UAE has aligned with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has fought Saudi-backed forces. The two Gulf states are now toe-to-toe in a proxy war for influence inside Yemen — ensuring the conflict drags on through 2026.

Black Swan events

I missed the Syria-Assad collapse in 2024 predictions. Low probability but high impact risks do exist for 2026: a high intensity military conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea as China flexes its new naval muscles; a Pakistan military coup; and a Mexican cartel vs government 'civil war' are all possible. (And potential grounds for a Future War novel!)

Any good news FX?

Yes! Plenty! Low-level border conflicts between India–Pakistan and Thailand–Cambodia will persist, but NOT intensify in 2026. North and South Korea will do little more than exchange threats, drones and balloons. And though increasingly bellicose, China is not yet ready — or able — to invade Taiwan.

#MilitaryThriller #ActionThriller #WarFiction #TechnoThriller #PoliticalThriller #ModernWarfare #SpecialForces #EspionageThriller #GlobalConflict #KindleBooks

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Nostradamus or FX Holden, your choice!

FX Holden — Wed, 3 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

"Sometimes history moves so fast it's impossible to know tomorrow what will happen yesterday." Satirist Darth Putin.

In January I made a set of predictions about the coming year in geopolitics!

https://fxholden.com/.../predictions-for-2025-i-have-a...

I got one wrong (too optimistic) and several right. Let's look back (red, got it wrong; green, got it right; yellow 'undecided')...

Ukraine: I predicted the 'Coalition of the Willing' would make a peace guarantee to Ukraine and there would be a (possibly brief) ceasefire. That never happened. Instead the war grinds on, the US transitioned from donating arms to selling them via the EU, Ukraine now makes 60% of its own weapons and Putin shows no real intention to seek peace or even a ceasefire, holding out for complete Ukrainian capitulation. This has been so frustrating, I had to write a book about it: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield.../dp/B0G3LDN8DG

Syria: I predicted the overthrow of Assad would result in civil war and it did/does. The new interim govt holds only Damascus, Homs and coast, Syrian Democratic Forces hold the northeast, Hayat Tahrir al‑Sham (HTS) holds the northwest, while Syrian National Army (SNA) & Turkish-backed rebel forces hold parts of the north and Aleppo.

Iran: I wrote "Israel will use the window of opportunity in 2025 to try to derail the Iranian nuclear program, with US-supported attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities." And it did.

Taiwan: I predicted China would continue its military buildup (it did) and nothing would happen regarding Taiwan (and it didn't.) So far in 2025 China has launched the carrier Fujian, at least two new frigates of class Type 054B frigate and a large amphibious assault ship Sichuan (class Type 076) entered sea-trials. In addition, it announced operational readiness for its new J-35 naval stealth fighter.

Myanmar/Burma: I predicted the military govt would collapse. It is in the process of falling apart, but still hanging on. It's control of territory in Burma has reduced from 40% in January to 20% today - the junta’s territorial control has shrunk to isolated cores; rebels now hold contiguous swathes rather than scattered pockets, complicating junta’s overland reach. It's a matter of months before the Junta flees for Macau. Check the news today, they may already have done so.

Sudan: I predicted the uneasy peace would erupt into total war again, and sadly, it did.

How did your predictions unfold?

Predictions for 2025 will come in January! Ukraine won't feature - it's a crapshoot - but Venezuela might

Until then, have a nice holiday break (I'll be Down Under visiting family) see you in the New Year!

Cheers,

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World War H - read a review!

FX Holden — Thu, 27 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Hey there! Yes, e-Book will drop tomorrow Fri 28th Nov and you can still get it at 50% off the eBook with the links below! Paperback is also on sale for price of printing and postage...

This review from Readers' Favorite is also hot off the press - enjoy!

Reviewed by: Jamie Michele

Review Rating: 5 Stars

"World War H by FX Holden is brilliant."

In World War H: A Future War novel by FX Holden, Major Siku Smith of the Defense Clandestine Service and FBI agent Bernstein track Detroit teen Tayla Aaronson after a KC-135 is destroyed by a drone she built, launched through tasks from an online gig system called Payback. As Smith investigates further incidents tied to Payback—fires, power failures, and sabotage across the US—he learns that inmates in a Belarus data hub relay assignments to users worldwide. A DCS officer, Ali Sabanov, escapes that facility with casualties from its deadly pursuit. Ali passes Smith a warning about coordinated actions set for September. Attacks escalate, drawing in US agencies and foreign militaries. Chinese forces are on the move in Central America while Payback users damage US sites, including Tayla, who might just be ready to bargain.

I cannot think of a more timely, better version of a futuristic war than one that is, quite literally, a crowdsourced retaliation, funded by video traffic and gig payouts. World War H by FX Holden is brilliant. It is a fast, tightly built techno thriller that draws strength from its mix of cyber attacks, battlefield pressure, land, air, and sea assaults, and ground-level investigations. The best part to me is the women, who are scene-stealers: Tayla Aaronson’s quick thinking, Li Chen’s moves with rigid command decisions, and Juanita Winter’s push through a volatile Los Angeles. Holden’s grasp on operational detail gives the story legs as sabotage, misdirection, and rapid response collide across continents. The book ends on something of a cliff-hanger, no pun intended, and if Holden decides to continue on the WWH path with another book, the author can count me in!

Cheers,

Like all Future War novels, World War H is a standalone novel with a fully resolved storyline...

US https://www.amazon.com/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

AU https://www.amazon.com.au/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

CA https://www.amazon.ca/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

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World War H out now!

FX Holden — Sat, 22 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

How do you fight a war where the enemy's foot soldiers are your own citizens?

May, 2029. In Panama, the US and China face off as the USS Carney is sent to prevent Chinese warships armed with hypersonic missiles from making a transit through the Panama Canal.

In London, a suspicious van is dumped on Tower Bridge, shutting down peak hour traffic for hours as the bomb squad investigates. In Washington DC, a fire in a dumpster at the back of the Capitol Power Plant puts the plant out of action for a week. In Lyon, France, there is panic in the metro system as smoke bombs are lit inside train carriages. In Detroit, teenager Tayla Aaronson, is approached inside a computer game by another player offering her $10,000 for an act of 'vandalism.' Are these random events? Or the first attacks in a new world war?

Officer in Charge of the Foreign Interference Taskforce, Lieutenant Siku Smith, is convinced there’s a connection. At a time of high stakes international tension, someone is using low-level acts of sabotage to groom ordinary citizens - often teens - to conduct acts of sabotage . A hybrid offensive is underway, why is he the only one who sees it?

He’s not. Aboard the US Coast Guard Cutter USCG Calhoun, Ensign Melissa Mayeux is monitoring the movements of a Liberian flagged freighter as it veers through a naval restricted area. It’s the second freighter in a month making a detour through the zone where US companies are laying new undersea data cables. Someone is testing their responses, she's sure. So why is no one doing anything about it?

In Poland, Captain Anthony ‘K-4’ Kellog, V-280 Dark Valor pilot, prepares to insert special operators from 3rd Battalion, 3rd Special Forces, deep inside Belarussian territory. Their objective is the recovery of a US agent with intelligence on a planned shadow offensive against NATO. It's called Payback Day. But is it a single event, or the start of a campaign?

Fresh from Introductory Fighter Jet training, young Royal Australian Air Force pilot, Flying Officer Karen ‘Bunny’ O’Hare is attached to a joint US-Australian program to develop a navalized version of the Ghost Bat drone. Running flight tests aboard the USS America, she finds herself on the front line as America goes toe to toe with the Chinese navy carrier Fujian and the drones are placed under the command of US Marine Corps Aviation. Is O'Hare's time on the test program over, or is the real test still ahead of her?

As the missiles start flying in Panama, and a hybrid war breaks out across the US and Europe, leaders of nations across the globe are forced to address the question: how do you strike back against an unknown enemy determined to hide in the shadows?

World War H is coming. Pre-order now and save 50%!

US https://www.amazon.com/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

AU https://www.amazon.com.au/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

CA https://www.amazon.ca/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

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The 1939 vibe is real ...

FX Holden — Wed, 12 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

🚨In case you haven't noticed that World War H (HYBRID) has already begun, here is the news from the front line in the last month!🚨

⚔️WARSAW, Poland (AP) — A Ukrainian citizen allegedly working for Russian intelligence services as part of a sabotage campaign was detained in Poland, while two others were arrested in Romania, prosecutors said.

https://apnews.com/article/poland-sabotage-war-ukraine-hybrid-russia-b62581c88b125d18b6f962c0c0b83b2f

⚔️LONDON (AP) — British counterterrorism police arrested three men in London on Thursday on suspicion of spying for Russia. The Metropolitan Police force said that the men, ages 44, 45 and 48, were detained at addresses in the city under the National Security Act “on suspicion of assisting a foreign intelligence service.” Police said that the country in question is Russia.

https://apnews.com/article/uk-russia-spying-arrests-london-50b2ae56ca77dd99dd5d6c08588e318f

⚔️LITHUANIA (AP): The government of Lithuania, which is a member of the U.S.-led NATO alliance, said Monday that it will start shooting down unidentified balloons that enter the country's airspace, after a number of them allegedly launched from neighboring Belarus forced the repeated closure of a major airport.

https://apnews.com/article/lithuania-belarus-border-closure-balloons-airport-1286b5931ba2cdba47baccf9f09708ef

⚔️NORMANDY (AP) - Pigs heads were left outside mosques recently in a deliberate attempt to stir ethnic tensions in France, orchestrated by Russian intelligence, according to police. Provocative stunts targeting Jewish and Muslim communities are among a range of incidents tracked back to Russia. They span graffiti campaigns in Paris; the burning of a Warsaw shopping centre and a warehouse in London; exploding parcels in Leipzig and Birmingham; the sabotage of railway lines in Germany; cyberattacks and doctored viral videos across Europe; to the recent disruption of airports with drones in Norway, Denmark and Munich.

🔵These incidents follow on the heels of two 17-year-old boys arrested on suspicion of "state interference" in the Netherlands, prosecutors say, in a case with reported links to Russian spying.

🔥Hybrid war comes to the US: 'World War H' by FX Holden. Preorder now for November launch, and save 50%!🔥

https://www.amazon.com/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN

#KindleThriller #KindleUnlimited #HybridWar #MilitaryThriller #TechThriller #SpyThriller #GeopoliticalThriller #CyberWarfare #FutureWar #Espionage #AIWarfare #Disinformation #GreatPowerRivalry #GlobalConflict #FXHolden #ThrillerReaders

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World War H for 'Hybrid'

FX Holden — Sat, 1 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

World War H is the next novel from FX Holden but what is Hybrid Warfare exactly? And what is a country like the US doing to combat it? Here is your DEEP dive into the topic! Grab a coffee (tea, wine, bourbon) and dig in.

Introduction: The Hybrid Warfare Threat

Hybrid warfare – sometimes called gray-zone conflict or low-intensity warfare – involves achieving strategic aims through non-traditional means without overt large-scale military forcedefense.gov. Adversaries blend propaganda, deception, economic pressure, sabotage, and other indirect tactics to destabilize target nations. For example, Russia’s use of disinformation, proxy militias, and covert action in Ukraine and China’s use of civilian fishing militias in the South China Sea are seen as textbook hybrid methodsnavy.mil cimsec.org. As Army Lt. Gen. Karen Gibson noted, this approach allows foes to challenge the U.S. “without fighting” in a conventional sense, exploiting the “unprecedented ability to use information as an element of warfare” in today’s connected worlddefense.gov defense.gov. The United States recognizes that such tactics – which date back to Sun Tzu’s dictum that “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” – present a critical challenge to national securitydefense.gov navy.mil.

Let's look at the challenges posed by Hybrid Warfare, but exclude cyber warfare, which is much better recognized.

(You can preorder WWH now and save 50% on the release price: https://www.amazon.com/World-War-Future-novel-ebook/dp/B0FL1BCZHN )

A Dispersed but Growing Response

No single unified “Hybrid Warfare Command” exists in the U.S. defense establishment dedicated solely to hybrid or irregular threats. Instead, responsibility for countering hybrid warfare is distributed across multiple military branches and agencies. In fact, senior officials acknowledge the Pentagon has used “a number of synonyms” – irregular, unconventional, asymmetric, hybrid, gray-zone – reflecting some ambiguity in roles and doctrinedefense.gov. Historically, U.S. strategy prioritized conventional warfighting, and irregular warfare was treated as a lesser included mission (an annex to the 2018 National Defense Strategy)defense.gov defense.gov. However, recent years have seen a concerted effort to better coordinate and elevate U.S. capabilities for the hybrid threat. Irregular warfare is now integrated into top-level defense strategy as “a key part of integrated deterrence” alongside traditional combat powerdefense.gov.

One major step was Congress authorizing an Irregular Warfare Functional Center (IWFC) in 2021, intended to “enhance and sustain focus on” nontraditional warfare and educate officers in countering these threatsrand.org. The Department of Defense stood up a new Irregular Warfare Center (IWC) in 2022, which reached initial operating capacity by October 2022. The IWC is explicitly described as the “central mechanism for developing the Department of Defense’s irregular warfare knowledge” and advancing understanding of hybrid/irregular concepts across the forceirregularwarfarecenter.org. This reflects a shift toward a more coordinated, whole-of-DoD approach – but execution still spans many organizations. What follows is a look at how various U.S. military branches and security agencies specialize in aspects of hybrid warfare, from information operations to counter-sabotage (excluding purely cyber warfare, which is handled by dedicated cyber commands not covered here).

"In summary, the U.S. response to hybrid warfare remains scattered and uncoordinated - distributed across multiple commands and agencies, each attacking a piece of the problem"

U.S. Army: Special Operations and Influence Warfare

Within the Army, the primary focus for hybrid threats lies in its special operations and information forces. The U.S. Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF), which include Green Berets (Special Forces), Army Psychological Operations units, and Civil Affairs, provide unique capabilities to counter irregular and hybrid threats worldwidendupress.ndu.edu ndupress.ndu.edu. Army Special Forces are trained in unconventional warfare – for instance, raising and advising local militias or resistance movements – and in Foreign Internal Defense to shore up partners, which directly counters adversaries’ efforts to foment insurgency or instabilityndupress.ndu.edu ndupress.ndu.edu. Army Psychological Operations (PSYOP) soldiers (renamed Military Information Support Operations) plan and execute influence campaigns to counter enemy propaganda, sway local populations, and support U.S. strategic communications. These PSYOP units (for example, the 4th Psychological Operations Group (Airborne) under U.S. Army Special Operations Command) specialize in information warfare and deception operations that are vital against hybrid tacticsndupress.ndu.edu ndupress.ndu.edu.

To adapt to evolving threats, the Army has also created new structures for information warfare. For two decades, the Army’s 1st Information Operations Command (Land) was the only active-duty unit dedicated to information operations, deploying teams globally to help Army and joint commanders gain an “information advantage”army.mil army.mil. In May 2025, 1st IO Command was inactivated as the Army reorganized these functions under U.S. Army Cyber Command – carrying its legacy forward through “Information Advantage” forces and Theater Information Advantage Detachments that will integrate information warfare into multi-domain operationsarmy.mil army.mil. The Army is thus embedding hybrid warfare countermeasures (like influence, deception, and information protection) into its broader cyber and electronic warfare framework.

Notably, the Army also fielded the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG) from 2006–2021 as a special unit to study enemy irregular tactics and rapidly devise countermeasures. AWG operatives in Iraq and Afghanistan analyzed insurgent methods – from IED techniques to information campaigns – and advised Army units on adaptive tactics. As the Army shifted focus to great-power competition, it decided to discontinue the AWG in 2021, believing its functions could be absorbed by the broader forcearmy.mil army.mil. To preserve institutional knowledge, the AWG’s lessons learned in countering hybrid/adaptive threats were handed off to the Center for Army Lessons Learned and other schoolsarmy.mil. While AWG no longer exists, its mission indicates how seriously the Army regarded the need to “think like the enemy” in hybrid conflicts. Today, Army training centers also use hybrid threat scenarios – blending conventional forces with guerrillas, terrorists, and criminal proxies – to prepare units for the full spectrum of conflictarmyupress.army.mil armyupress.army.mil.

U.S. Marine Corps: Information Maneuver and Influence

The Marine Corps, traditionally a purely expeditionary combat force, has in recent years stood up dedicated capabilities to contend with information and hybrid warfare. In 2017 the Marines created their first Marine Expeditionary Force Information Group (MIG) – a unit “solely focused on the confluence of information and cyber warfare” within a Marine Corps division-equivalent commandmarinecorpstimes.com. The MIGs combine specialties like signals intelligence, electronic warfare, operational security, and military deception to support Marine forces in contested information environments. However, initially the Marines lacked their own psychological operations branch and had to borrow or coordinate with Army PSYOP for influence missionscgsc.contentdm.oclc.org. To fix this, the Marine Corps launched a new 17XX “Information Maneuver” occupational field in 2022, which for the first time creates Marine PSYOP and influence officers as a permanent career fieldmarinecorpstimes.com marinecorpstimes.com.

Under this reform, Marines in ranks up to lieutenant colonel can become “Influence Officers,” and enlisted Marines can become Psychological Operations specialists (Influence Specialists) and Civil Affairs Specialists focused on the information fightmarinecorpstimes.com marinecorpstimes.com. Marines holding legacy PSYOP or Civil Affairs MOSs have been transitioned into the new field, reflecting the Corps’ view that “fights over misinformation and propaganda” are inseparable from modern combatmarinecorpstimes.com marinecorpstimes.com. These specialists, working within the MIG and across Marine forces, enable the Corps to conduct influence campaigns, counter adversary narratives, and coordinate information operations alongside its kinetic operations. The Marine Corps has essentially acknowledged that winning the “battle of the story” is as critical as winning the battle on the ground. As Lt. Gen. Matthew Glavy (Deputy Commandant for Information) put it, this professionalization ensures Marines can “continue doing what they are passionate about” in the information domain while improving the Corps’ readiness for hybrid threatsmarinecorpstimes.com.

U.S. Navy: Information Warfare and Hybrid Threat Research

The U.S. Navy addresses hybrid warfare primarily through its Information Warfare Community and specialized research efforts. The Navy has formally established an Information Warfare (IW) corps that integrates intelligence, electronic warfare, cyber operations, oceanographic/weather units, and communications networks – all aimed at achieving decision advantage and disrupting adversaries short of open war16af.af.mil. Each Navy fleet now includes an Information Warfare Commander, and unique task forces have stood up solely focused on these missions. For example, the U.S. Pacific Fleet created a Fleet Information Warfare Command Pacific to synchronize information operations in that theateren.wikipedia.org. Navy Information Operations Commands (NIOC), under U.S. Tenth Fleet (Fleet Cyber Command), are key operational units. A case in point is NIOC Pacific, with over 2,000 sailors and civilians, which provides extensive IW support (signals intelligence, electronic warfare, OPSEC, etc.) to the Pacific Fleet and U.S. Indo-Pacific Commandnavifor.usff.navy.mil. NIOC Pacific is described as “a leader in integrating information warfare efforts across cyber, space, and electromagnetic domains”, directly supporting the Navy’s ability to counter hybrid tactics at seanavifor.usff.navy.mil. In practice, this means Navy IW units help protect military networks from intrusion, jam or deceive adversary sensors, conduct military deception (e.g. using decoys or false signals), and track adversary influence operations – all of which are tools to negate an enemy’s hybrid playbook.

The Navy is also investing in education and research on hybrid threats. In 2021, the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) launched a Center on Combating Hybrid Threats (CCHT) as an academic hub to study and counter emerging hybrid-warfare techniquesnavy.mil. This center brings together experts across disciplines to develop strategies to “detect, deny, disrupt, degrade, defeat and ultimately deter” hybrid tactics by adversariesnavy.mil. NPS’s CCHT works with partners like the Department of Energy’s national labs and NATO’s Hybrid Threat Centre of Excellence in Finland, focusing on scenarios such as protecting critical infrastructure from sabotage or countering disinformation campaignsnavy.mil navy.mil. The Navy’s academic and war-college publications (for instance, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings articles) increasingly discuss operations in the “information environment”, reflecting an ongoing doctrinal effort to incorporate hybrid warfare lessons (sometimes termed “cognitive warfare”) into naval strategyusni.org cimsec.org. Additionally, Naval Special Warfare units (SEALs) contribute to hybrid conflict capabilities by conducting maritime unconventional warfare – such as sabotage raids, special reconnaissance, or training foreign maritime forces – which can be decisive against hybrid threats like covert maritime militias or terrorist networks at sea.

U.S. Air Force: Information Dominance and Influence Operations

The Air Force has reorganized dramatically in order to confront information-age and hybrid threats. In 2019, the Air Force combined its cyber warfare, intelligence, surveillance/reconnaissance, and electronic warfare forces under a single unified command: the Sixteenth Air Force (Air Forces Cyber), which serves as the Air Force’s dedicated Information Warfare Numbered Air Force16af.af.mil jbsa.mil. Headquartered in Texas, the 16th AF’s mission is to “focus on information warfare in the modern age” by integrating a wide array of capabilities – ISR, cyber operations, electronic warfare, weather, public affairs, and information operations – to achieve effects against adversaries across the cyber and information domain16af.af.mil. In simple terms, this command can fuse intelligence insights with offensive cyber and electronic measures and messaging campaigns to shape an adversary’s decisions without firing a shot. The 16th AF explicitly defines Information Warfare as “the employment of military capabilities in and through the information environment to deliberately affect adversary human and system behavior”16af.af.mil. Notably, public affairs (i.e., the messaging and narrative side) is listed alongside technical disciplines – an acknowledgement that controlling the narrative and countering disinformation is part of the Air Force’s warfighting toolkit. This organizational reform means the Air Force’s planning staffs and operational units now treat cyberspace operations, electronic jamming, psychological operations, and traditional kinetic missions as part of one continuum in conflict short of declared war16af.af.mil 16af.af.mil. It ensures that, for example, an Air Force cyber team might takedown an adversary propaganda server at the same time that an electronic warfare aircraft blocks their radars and an information operations team prepares truthful counter-messaging – all coordinated under one command for maximum effect.

Air Force Special Operations also contributes to counter–hybrid warfare, albeit often in partnership with other services. For instance, the Air Force’s 193rd Special Operations Wing (Pennsylvania Air National Guard) operates EC-130J “Commando Solo” aircraft outfitted to broadcast radio and TV messages over broad areas – a unique strategic psychological operations platform used in conflicts like Afghanistan and Iraq to counter enemy propaganda and communicate with civilian populations. (During the Gulf War and operations in Haiti and Bosnia, earlier versions of these aircraft famously broadcast messages urging enemy troops to surrender or populations to stay calm.) This capability allows the U.S. to project influence from the air, supporting the information campaign integral to hybrid warfare. In addition, Air Force legal and intelligence personnel are examining how adversaries exploit “lawfare” and legal messaging as part of hybrid conflict. A recent Air Force JAG paper noted that Russia and others **“weaponize” legal frameworks and propaganda – for example, falsely invoking international law to justify aggression – and emphasized the need for operational legal advisors to help counter such tactics in the gray zonejagreporter.af.mil jagreporter.af.mil. This illustrates that every domain, from cyberspace to the courtroom of public opinion, is being treated as a battleground. The Air Force’s response to hybrid threats, therefore, ranges from technological measures (cyber defense, electronic attack) to information and influence efforts aimed at undermining hostile narratives and bolstering U.S. messaging.

U.S. Space Force: Safeguarding the Space Domain Against Hybrid Tactics

As the newest branch, the U.S. Space Force is tasked with securing U.S. interests in space – a realm where hybrid warfare tactics are increasingly evident. Adversaries have developed non-kinetic means (below the threshold of overt war) to interfere with satellites and space-based services that the U.S. military and society rely on. In response, the Space Force has units specifically focusing on identifying and countering these subtle space threats. For example, the Space Force’s 527th Space Aggressor Squadron (527 SAS) plays the role of the “enemy” in exercises by simulating emerging space hybrid tacticsspaceforce.mil. Their mission is to “know, teach, and replicate modern, emerging, and integrated space threats” such as GPS jamming, communications interference, and orbital harassment, in order to train U.S. and allied forces to operate in a “contested, degraded, and operationally-limited” environmentspaceforce.mil. In training scenarios, the 527 SAS might employ a GPS electromagnetic attack system to jam navigation signals or mimic a hostile actor trying to dazzle a satellite’s sensorsspaceforce.mil. This prepares U.S. commanders to recognize and overcome space-based harassment that an opponent could use in a hybrid campaign (for instance, disruptive jamming that cannot immediately be attributed as an act of war).

Operationally, the Space Force is fortifying the resilience of U.S. space infrastructure against ambiguous aggression. This includes hardening satellites against laser dazzling or cyber intrusion, building redundant communications paths, and developing tactics to rapidly attribute and respond to interference. If, say, a foreign power covertly jams U.S. GPS signals over a region (a scenario analysts indeed label hybrid warfare in spaceairandspaceforces.com lieber.westpoint.edu), Space Force units in Space Operations Command would work with U.S. Intelligence Community sensors to attribute the source, while Space Force electronic warfare units (like those operating the new Meadowland satellite jamming countermeasures) might deploy to counter-jam or isolate the hostile signaldefensescoop.com airandspaceforces.com. The Space Force is also responsible for “Space Domain Awareness” – tracking objects and activities in orbit – which helps detect suspicious behavior such as a foreign satellite shadowing a U.S. asset (potentially to interfere or spy on it). By closely monitoring for these grey-zone actions in space and being ready to intervene (e.g. via diplomatic warning or technological countermeasure), the Space Force serves as a frontline defender against hybrid attacks targeting U.S. critical space systems. In sum, while the Space Force may not have a unit named “hybrid warfare division,” its core mission of protecting satellites and signals inherently involves countering the non-traditional, ambiguous attacks that characterize hybrid operations in the space domain.

U.S. Coast Guard: Securing the Maritime Front

Though part of the Department of Homeland Security in peacetime, the U.S. Coast Guard is one of the nation’s armed services and plays a crucial role in guarding against hybrid threats on the maritime front, especially from foreign actors. The Coast Guard’s daily missions – port security, coastal patrol, law enforcement, and search-and-rescue – increasingly intersect with the kind of covert or deniable aggression seen in hybrid warfare. For example, Coast Guard units monitor and board commercial vessels to prevent sabotage or covert hostile activity in U.S. ports. This became a focus after intelligence indicated that adversaries could target undersea cables, port facilities, or shipping chokepoints in a conflictcimsec.org. Hybrid tactics in the maritime domain might include using unmarked “little green men” boats or state-backed fishing fleets to intrude on territorial waters, mining harbors clandestinely, or disguising military units as civilian shipping. The Coast Guard, with its unique law enforcement authority and military capability, is the first line of defense against such gray-zone incursions in U.S. waterscimsec.org cimsec.org.

Inside U.S. ports, the Coast Guard’s Captains of the Port and Maritime Safety & Security Teams enforce regulations that require reporting of any “evidence of sabotage or subversive activity” at facilitiesbytebacklaw.com. This regulatory power is a tool to harden critical maritime infrastructure against insider threats or tampering – a hybrid threat concern. Externally, the Coast Guard’s Intelligence Coordination Center and Coast Guard Investigative Service work with the Navy and FBI to track foreign espionage or illicit maritime operations (such as weapons smuggling or sanctions evasion) that could be part of an adversary’s asymmetric campaign. Coast Guard cutters deployed abroad (in the Western Pacific or Persian Gulf, for instance) also engage in maritime security cooperation, training partner nations’ coast guards to recognize and counter hybrid tactics like illegal militia fishing fleets or disguised merchant vessels. A telling example is how some NATO and partner countries have expanded Coast Guard rules of engagement to confront aggressive foreign “fishing” vessels or maritime militia – Finland, for instance, authorized its coast guard to use deadly force in 2017 due to hybrid threat concernscimsec.org. The U.S. Coast Guard similarly stands ready to back up U.S. Navy or allied fleets in scenarios short of war.

In essence, the Coast Guard bridges the gap between civilian security and military defense in the maritime domain. It tackles the “soft” threats – illegal trafficking, port disruptions, covert interference with shipping – that, if orchestrated by an enemy state or proxy, form a component of hybrid warfare. By maintaining robust domain awareness (monitoring who and what is in U.S. waters), conducting vessel boardings and inspections, and having forces poised to respond to maritime incidents, the Coast Guard adds a vital, coordinated layer to U.S. defenses against foreign hybrid attacks.

Interagency and Intelligence Efforts (Foreign Influence Focus)

Because hybrid warfare often blurs the line between military and civilian targets, U.S. security agencies beyond the DoD also play a major role, particularly in countering foreign influence and information warfare on U.S. soil. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) leads domestic counterintelligence against malign foreign influence operations. In 2017, the FBI established a dedicated Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) to “identify and counteract” covert or coercive foreign efforts aimed at U.S. democratic institutions and discoursefbi.gov. The FITF brings together agents and analysts from the FBI’s counterintelligence, cyber, criminal, and counterterrorism divisions under one umbrella focused on foreign disinformation, propaganda, and election interferencefbi.gov. Its goal is to detect and disrupt activities like false social media personas sowing discord, influence-for-hire campaigns, or illicit funding of political groupsfbi.gov fbi.gov. The task force coordinates investigations across all 56 FBI field offices and works closely with social media companies to share threat indicators, resulting in the removal of hundreds of fake accounts linked to hostile actorsfbi.gov fbi.gov. During the 2018 and 2020 elections, the FBI FITF and its partners thwarted or exposed multiple foreign influence plots – for example, indicting a Russian operative in 2018 for running an online troll farm that spent millions to undermine U.S. politicsfbi.gov. The FBI also works hand-in-hand with the Department of Homeland Security and state election officials to harden election infrastructure and communications against both cyber attacks and information manipulationfbi.gov. In short, the FBI provides the investigative muscle to attribute and penalize foreign hybrid actions on U.S. soil, from propaganda campaigns to sabotage or espionage.

On the diplomatic and strategic communications front, the U.S. Department of State had, until recently, a dedicated center to counter foreign disinformation. The Global Engagement Center (GEC) was created in 2016 with the mission to “direct, lead, synchronize, and coordinate” the U.S. government’s efforts to expose and counter foreign propaganda and disinformation aimed at America and its alliesen.wikipedia.org. Initially born to combat terrorist group propaganda (like ISIS’s online messaging), the GEC’s authority was soon expanded by Congress to include state actors such as Russia, China, and Iran – especially after Russian interference in the 2016 election became evidenten.wikipedia.org. The GEC, operating with an interagency staff and funding for technology tools, produced analyses of adversary disinformation ecosystems (for example, publishing a detailed report on “Russia’s Pillars of Disinformation and Propaganda” in 2020) and funded programs to support independent media and digital literacy abroad2021-2025.state.gov. It also shared information with platforms and foreign partners to help dismantle fake news networks. By mandate, the GEC focused on foreign propaganda (to avoid infringing on domestic speech) and worked closely with intelligence agencies to track malign influence campaignsen.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org. (NB: As of late 2024, the GEC was defunded and its functions reorganized, amid policy debates, into a smaller State Department officeen.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org. This underscores the continued contention over how best to structure U.S. counter-disinformation efforts.) Even so, the core GEC mission – countering foreign lies with truth and organizing a whole-of-government response – remains an important part of U.S. strategy against hybrid warfare. Indeed, in 2022 the Office of the Director of National Intelligence set up a Foreign Malign Influence Center (FMIC) to bolster analysis of foreign influence threats and support agencies like GECen.wikipedia.org.

Finally, the U.S. Intelligence Community at large (NSA, CIA, DHS’s intelligence office, etc.) underpins all these efforts by collecting information on adversaries’ hybrid plans. For instance, NSA and U.S. Cyber Command monitor foreign cyber units that might be sowing misinformation or targeting infrastructure (even though pure cyber attacks are outside this discussion, the intel gained often illuminates broader hybrid campaigns). The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and service intelligence branches track indicators of hybrid operations – such as the movement of proxy forces, influence of front organizations, or financial flows that could fund subversive activitiescimsec.org cimsec.org. When Army Gen. Paul Nakasone (head of NSA/Cyber Command) speaks of “defending forward” in cyberspace, it often entails preempting foreign information operations before they hit the homeland. Likewise, U.S. Northern Command and DHS share intelligence to guard against covert foreign sabotage of critical infrastructure (a classic hybrid tactic). The important point is that interagency coordination has improved: the FBI, DHS, CIA, NSA, State, and DoD regularly sit together in task forces (for example, the Foreign Influence Task Force includes DHS and ODNI liaisons) to share a “common operating picture” of hybrid threats and decide on responsesfbi.gov fbi.gov. This whole-of-government approach is essential because hybrid warfare exploits any seams between military, law enforcement, and civil domains.

Conclusion: Toward a Unified Front Against Hybrid Warfare

In summary, the U.S. response to hybrid warfare remains scattered and uncoordinated distributed across multiple commands and agencies, each attacking a piece of the problem – but there is growing recognition of the need to unify these efforts. The Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard have all developed specialized units or doctrines to address facets of hybrid conflict, from psychological operations and civil-military engagement on the ground to information warfare in the cyber and space domains, and from counter-sabotage security in ports to influence operations in the airwaves. These military capabilities are complemented by civilian security agencies like the FBI (shielding the homeland from foreign subversion) and State Department (leading the narrative fight against foreign propaganda) in concert with the intelligence community. While there is no single “Hybrid Warfare Department” in the Pentagon, the establishment of coordination hubs like the DoD’s Irregular Warfare Centerirregularwarfarecenter.org and ODNI’s FMIC suggests a drive toward greater integration. U.S. officials often emphasize a “whole-of-government” and even “whole-of-society” approach is needed to counter hybrid threatscimsec.org cimsec.org, since adversaries will target vulnerabilities across military and civilian spheres.

Crucially, the U.S. and its allies are learning to anticipate hybrid tactics and build resilience rather than react piecemeal. Exercises and war games now include robust hybrid threat scenarios; for example, NATO and U.S. forces simulate coordinated cyber, information, and proxy attacks to practice interagency response. NATO has even developed a “Counter Hybrid Strategy,” and the U.S., as a leading member, aligns with those effortsndupress.ndu.edu. Still, challenges remain in ensuring all the moving parts – across five armed services and many agencies – act in sync. A defense intelligence official frankly observed that “the myriad of names” we use (irregular, hybrid, gray-zone, etc.) is a sign we are still refining our approachdefense.gov. But the trend is clear: **hybrid warfare defense is increasingly institutionalized within the U.S. national security architecture, not left to ad hoc efforts. The United States is bolstering its organizational muscle memory to quickly recognize hybrid aggression – be it a barrage of fake social media narratives or suspicious “fishermen” mapping undersea cables – and to respond in a coordinated, multi-faceted manner that blunts the attack without necessarily escalating to full military conflict. In the long run, this proactive and coordinated posture, spread across dedicated elements in each service and agency, aims to deter adversaries from ever launching hybrid attacks against the United States by denying them the easy wins they seek in the shadowsnavy.mil defense.gov.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defense and military service publications; Congressional and RAND analyses; FBI and State Department releases on foreign influence; Naval Postgraduate School and NATO Center of Excellence research on hybrid warfare

defense.gov defense.gov navy.mil irregularwarfarecenter.org ndupress.ndu.edu army.mil marinecorpstimes.com navifor.usff.navy.mil 16af.af.mil spaceforce.mil cimsec.org fbi.gov en.wikipedia.org.

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Hybrid war? Pfft

FX Holden — Sun, 12 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Russia is waging an undeclared hybrid war on NATO? Pffft. Over-exaggerated war mongering propaganda, right?

Or ...

Not. See this incomplete list of nearly 30(!) recent Russian attacks on NATO countries below.

And a link to preorder WORLD WAR H, in case you want to know just bad this could get if the USA was the target.

https://www.amazon.com/World-War-Future.../dp/B0FL1BCZHN

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Pulserider: the attention grabbing tech in Africa STORM

FX Holden — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

A wingless combat aircraft? No, not a blimp!

⚔️The tech that gets the most attention in the new Aggressor novel, Africa STORM, is the **Pulserider** Wingless Electromagnetic Air Vehicle.

https://www.amazon.com/Africa-STORM-Aggressor-Inc-Thriller-ebook/dp/B0FFGT8YCN

🔴Pulserider is a 4 ton aerodynamic object coated in plasma generating electric fields. Electrodes push out superheated plasma, which accelerate the object in the opposite direction. The US Pulserider WEAV is capable of flight both through the air (at speeds up to Mach 10), and underwater (at speeds of several hundred knots).

🔴Powered by a miniaturized antimatter reactor, it is armed with a 50kW laser which can be focused tightly for target destruction, or widely, for target designation.

🔴A product of Operation Peacemaker, the Pulserider interceptor is the central component of the Pulserider Continental Shield , an anti-missile defensive system deployed by the US in 2044 to protect US territory from nuclear attack.

Fantasy, or reality? As with all FX Holden tech, the Pulserider is firmly grounded in reality.

Florida professor Dr. Subrata Roy and colleagues, with funding from the USAF, have been granted several patents for WEAV tech. Their design employs no moving parts, and combines the aircraft structure, propulsion, energy production and storage, and control subsystems into one integrated system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wingless_Electromagnetic_Air_Vehicle

🚨To my knowledge, though, no prototype has yet flown—or has it? Maybe those declassified Pentagon “unidentified aircraft” videos are the first prototypes. But whose? Check this official Pentagon video, below:

https://youtu.be/OL6H0fODiMU?si=RZn_f2JN1uKKA02O

#MilitaryTech #ThrillerBooks #DefenseTech #MilitaryFiction #TechThriller #WarTech #SpyThriller #MilitaryInnovation #ActionBooks #ufos #kindledeals

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A rhetorical question

FX Holden — Sat, 13 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ifyou think nuclear weapons are scary, how do you feel about anti-matter weapons? Antimatter technology is no longer science fiction: scientists at CERN have perfected the means to generate, capture and transport it. That is all that is needed to create antimatter weapons, apart from the will.

Africa STORM - out now - answers a question that seriously troubles me. What if the first country to develop and deploy antimatter weapons decides to use them? Against an opponent with nuclear weapons?

You'll have to read to see how it plays out ... but you may be surprised.

UK Africa Storm: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Africa-STORM-Aggressor-Inc-Thriller-ebook/dp/B0FFGT8YCN

US: https://www.amazon.com/Africa-STORM-Aggressor-Inc-Thriller-ebook/dp/B0FFGT8YCN

AU: https://www.amazon.com.au/Africa-STORM-Aggressor-Inc-Thriller-ebook/dp/B0FFGT8YCN

CA: https://www.amazon.ca/Africa-STORM-Aggressor-Inc-Thriller-ebook/dp/B0FFGT8YCN

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