FX Holden | Updates

Is the nature of warfare changing? Long read from FX...

FX Holden — Wed, 3 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Musings on the future of war from the guy who wrote the Future War series. SPOILER: this starts dark but has a happy ending!

ON THE NATURE OF WAR

You'll read and hear a lot of commentators at the moment who say the nature of war has changed dramatically in recent years. Uncrewed air, sea and ground vehicles. Cyber and hybrid warfare. Omnipresent battlefield surveillance from the air and space. Data fusion. AI taking humans out of the kill chain. Autonomous targeting. Slaughterbots.

Sound familiar?

The way we wage war changes, but the essence of warfare hasn't changed. Humans just become more efficient at killing each other with each generation. From sticks and stones to slingshots, bows and arrows. Armor, shields and swords to rifles and gatling guns. Cavalry to tanks. Blimps to supersonic jets. V1 rockets to intercontinental ballistic missiles to lasers and drones. Carpet bombing to nuclear weapons and very soon, antimatter bombs.

The weapons of war, the means of waging war change, but war remains the same. Clausewitz called it 'the continuation of politics by other means.' John Keegan called it 'an expression of national identity for militant states.' Charles Tilly looked at it as a natural extention of nation building: 'the war made the state and the state made war.' Mary Kaldor called the military industrial complex 'a self perpetuating economic enterprise' fueled by blood, and you could apply the same argument to militant ethnic groups.

No matter what lens you look at it through, war has not changed. Any of the above perspectives may be true, or none of them, but war persists.

ASYMMETRY IS THE NEW BLACK

Another popular argument right now is that the balance of power between 'The Great Powers' and smaller states is at a tipping point. New, cheap weapons like drones which can be mass produced at scale, can render the air forces, navies and armies of the superpowers impotent. Look at Afghanistan! Look at Ukraine! Look at Iran!

Sure, let's look at Afghanistan - 'the graveyard of empires'. Go back to the 13th Century and Genghis Kahn, who didn't so much conquer it as obliterate entire cities, creating the fragmented tribal society that still exists today. Alexander the Great tried to rule it, and failed. The British waged three campaigns over eighty years, and failed too. Russia gave it ten years before pulling out. The US and its allies gave up and withdrew after 20 years. Aghanistan didn't change, and neither did the nature of war there. Afghanistan is the perfect example that the so called 'great powers' often bite off more than they can chew.

OK, what about Ukraine? A country of 40 million resisting a nuclear superpower of 150 million, not just surviving, but becoming without peer, the most lethal, modern army in Europe (and that includes its enemy). Has Ukraine changed the nature of war as we know it? Hardly. The historical ancestors of modern Ukrainians (Zaporozhian Cossacks, Ruthenians, and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania) fought numerous wars against the precursor of the modern, much larger Russian state (the Grand Duchy of Moscow/Tsardom of Russia) and inflicted several crushing military defeats on them. So how is today any different? Russia underestimates Ukraine, Ukraine hands Russia a beating. History repeats, the weapons of war change, war remains the same.

So, Iran. A nation of a hundred million ruled by morally bankrupt despots, with virtually no air force, attacked (by air and sea) by no fewer than two nuclear powers with world leading militaries. Three months after the start of hostilities, it still refuses to capitulate. Like Ukraine, it fights back with drones, missiles and uncrewed boats. Is this not the perfect example of how war has changed, if military powers like Israel and the US cannot force Iran to 'cry Uncle.'

The answer of course is no. One constant in war, is that no war has ever been won from the air alone and both the US and Israel have so far declined to prosecute a ground war with Iran. Secondly, like Afghanistan, Iran is also a 'graveyard of empires', but with a twist. Like Afghanistan, it is made up of brutal, mountainous terrain making it essentially a mountain fortress. It has never been defeated quickly and historically, Iran has not just outlasted its invaders, it has absorbed them, making them Persian rather than letting itself be transformed. (Again, look at the history of Alexander in Persia, the Islamic Caliphate, Genghis Kahn, or the failure of the Russians, British and Americans to exert control over Iran last century.)

So no, the US struggle to force Iran to submit is not indicative of a change in the nature of warfare, but rather a testament to power of geography and the stubborn persistence of intangible and intransigent Persian national identity. The US and Israel might be wise to consider a saying coined by FX Holden (right here, you read it first): Be wary, those who would conquer Persia, for they will surely become Persian!

THE SILVER LINING

Though the craft of war may change, the nature of war does not. And that means one truth remains immutable - all war ends in peace. Eventually the combatants tire, lay down their swords and shields, and either yield, or negotiate a peace. That peace may last weeks or months, years, or generations. It may not be a just peace. It definitely won't be permanent.

But since war itself has not changed, take heart! The war in Ukraine WILL end in peace, as will the war between the US, Iran and Israel. All wars end, and we must make the best of the peace that follows, for as long as it lasts.

AN AUTHOR-Y NOTE

Perhaps this belief is why I write about war as I do. Every book I write (spoiler) ends in peace. I get to write my own 'happy endings' to the conflicts of the future, in the naive hope that the conflicts they describe will never happen.

(Sure, not all of the characters in these novels make it through unscathed, but hey, that's war.)

PICTURED: the Gods of War, Ares and Athena

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SNEAK PEEK! DNIPRO SHIELD OPORD

FX Holden — Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Part of the process for writing Blue Shield and Blue Shield 2: DNIPRO is to prepare an Operations Order (OPORD) describing the plan for the coming battle so that I can structure my narrative over the top of it. But as the great Mike Tyson said, ""Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." Enjoy!

OPORD 32-004 DNIPRO SHIELD

CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // REL TO NATO/UKR COPY NO: 1 of 25 ISSUING HEADQUARTERS: HQ COALITION CORPS - SOUTH (TAVRIIA) PLACE OF ISSUE: ZAPORIZHZHIA, UKRAINE TIME GROUP: 081200Z MESSAGE REFERENCE: OPORD 26-001 (DNIPRO SHIELD)

TASK ORGANIZATION:

· CC-1 (Breach Division): 47th Mech Brig (UKR), 12th Armoured BCT (UK) [incl. 1 & 3 Royal Welsh], Kymi Engineer Bn (FIN), 14th Signal Regt EW (UK).

· CC-2 (Exploitation Division): Panzerlehrbrigade 9 (GER), 1st Warsaw Armoured Brig (POL), EloKaBtl 932 EW (GER).

· Flank Security Command: 7e Brigade Blindée (FRA), Karelia Brigade (FIN), 82nd Air Assault Brig (UKR).

· Corps Troops: 14th Unmanned Systems Regt (UKR), 44th Arty Brig (UKR), Joint C-UAS Task Force.

· Maritime Task Force: Black Sea Surface Group (TUR), Naval Drone Flotilla (UKR).

1. SITUATION a. Enemy Forces: Elements of Russian 58th and 5th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) occupy deeply echeloned defensive positions (three belts) along the Zaporizhzhia Line of Contact (LoC). Enemy tactics rely heavily on localized EW jamming (Pole-21, Zhitel) and saturated deployment of fiber-optic FPV munitions. Enemy reserves (76th VDV) are templated 40km rearward, capable of counter-attacking a penetration within 4 hours. b. Friendly Forces: Coalition Corps-South (CC-S) is consolidated North of the LoC. OSG Tavriia provides operational fires and deep strike capability. c. Terrain and Weather: Open terrain favors long-range observation and fields of fire. Mine density is extreme (>5 per m2 in primary belts). Weather is clear, favoring UAS operations for both sides.

2. MISSION CC-S conducts a deliberate breach of enemy defensive belts on the Tokmak axis commencing D-Day/H-Hour to secure Melitopol, sever the Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC), and establish blocking positions along the M14 highway to enable Phase II operations (isolation of Kherson forces).

3. EXECUTION a. Commander's Intent: * Purpose: To fracture the strategic land bridge.

· Key Tasks: (1) Neutralize enemy UAS/ISR capabilities in the breach sector via concentrated EW and physical strikes. (2) Conduct an autonomous-assisted combined arms breach. (3) Rapid passage of lines by exploitation forces. (4) Secure the flanks of the penetration corridor.

· End State: CC-S forces occupy Melitopol and have established a defensive "hard shoulder" facing East to defeat Donbas-based counter-attacks. Enemy forces West of Melitopol are isolated.

b. Concept of Operations: Operation DNIPRO SHIELD is conducted in four phases:

· Phase 0 (Shaping - H-72 to H-Hour): Corps troops conduct deep strikes against enemy C2, EW, and VBS (UAV) launch sites. 14th USR conducts continuous suppression of enemy drone hubs.

· Phase I (Breach - H-Hour to H+12): CC-1, led by 47th Mech (UKR), conducts explosive and UGV-assisted mechanical breaching to create three 50m lanes. GB and UKR EW units maintain localized RF denial ("Black Dome"). FI and GER rapid response units begin decoy attack in Berdiansk direction.

· Phase II (Exploitation - H+12 to H+72): ), 47th Mech (UKR), 12th ABCT (GBR), and FRDF (FIN) conducts a forward passage of lines through CC-1, bypassing isolated strongpoints to fix Russian forces around Tokmak and seize Melitopol.

· Phase III (Consolidation - H+72 onwards): ) CC-2 (PzLehrBrig 9 and 1st Warsaw) exploit breach. Flank Security Command deploys along the Eastern edge of the salient to defeat enemy counter-attacks. CC-1 reconstitutes to prepare for Phase IV (Westward and Southward exploitation).

c. Tasks to Subordinate Units:

· (1) CC-1: Main Effort 1. Conduct breach. Secure near-side and far-side objectives. Provide local C-UAS cover over breach lanes.

· (2) CC-2: Main Effort 2. On order, pass through CC-1. Fix Russian forces in Tokmak. Seize Melitopol. Sever M14 highway.

· (3) Flank Security Command: Supporting Effort 1. Follow and assume CC-2. Establish Eastern flank blocking positions.

· (4) Maritime Task Force: Conduct interdiction of Russian naval resupply from Crimea to Azov Sea ports.

· (5) Coalition Air Wing (CAW): Supporting Effort 2. Conduct Joint Air Operations to gain and maintain localized air superiority over the Tokmak-Melitopol corridor, enable the breach force, and isolate the battlefield from Russian reinforcement.

d. Coordinating Instructions:

· D-Day/H-Hour: TBD by Corps Commander.

· Joint Airspace Control & Air-Ground Integration: Due to the extreme density of tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and friendly Electronic Warfare (EW) "Black Dome" operations, airspace deconfliction is the critical vulnerability. All fixed-wing Close Air Support (CAS), Air Interdiction (AI), and MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) UAS operations must clear the Corps Joint Airspace Control Center (JACC).

· UAS Coordination: All fixed-wing and MALE UAS operations must clear the Corps Joint Airspace Control Center to avoid fratricide by friendly EW/Air Defense. FPV and tactical UAS operating below 500ft are decentralized to Battalion level.

4. SUSTAINMENT

· a. Logistics: Main Supply Route (MSR) ALPHA established along the T0408 highway. Class III (Fuel) and V (Ammo) forward operating bases established 10km North of LoC. Autonomous UGV assets prioritized for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and final-mile Class V resupply within the breach lanes.

· b. Medical: Role 2 medical facilities established by GER and UK elements North of LoC. Role 3 at Zaporizhzhia.

5. COMMAND AND SIGNAL

· a. Command: Tactical Command Post (TAC CP) CC-S moves forward with CC-1 behind the breach force. Main CP remains in Zaporizhzhia.

· b. Signal: Primary communications via chaotic frequency-hopping VHF/UHF and low-Earth orbit satellite. Secondary via fiber-optic tether where available. Strict emission control (EMCON) in effect prior to H-Hour.

ACKNOWLEDGE: COMMANDER, CC-S

PREORDER HERE and save: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-DNIPRO-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0D4789XXP

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Fun factoid

FX Holden — Sun, 17 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Just topped 405,000 FX Holden novels sold. Each is about 500 pages, so lay them on top of each other in a pile and the pile would reach

40,000 feet, or
7 miles, or
12 kilometers

For comparison, Mount Everest is 5.5 miles, or 8.8km!

I've released 19 titles since BERING STRAIT in Nov 2018 - about 2.5 each year. How many have you read? Check out the collection here: https://www.amazon.com/stores/FX-Holden/author/B07J47L7KB

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How good is FREE?

FX Holden — Sat, 16 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Early tip off for newsletter subscribers: to celebrate BERING STRAIT reaching 50,000 books sold (a certified best seller!) you can pick it up on Kindle until 19 May, FREE.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07J3P42HF

And the Future War series hit a milestone this week too, with 250,000 books in the series sold, so I am giving away the double-volume (KOBANI/GOLAN) on Kindle until 19 May too!

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09BFQL75B

All books in the FUTURE WAR series are standalone stories, and can be read in any order...

And then because too much FREE is never enough, from 19 to 23 May you can get the first book in the Aggressor Series (AGGRESSOR) FREE as well! Put it in your diary...

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BRYJ1GRH

Feel FREE to forward this email to a friend!

Cheers,

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Why did I write Blue Shield? from FX

FX Holden — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

I know writing a novel about a war that is ongoing is fraught with risk, but as with all novels in the 'What-if' series I could not stop myself wondering - what if NATO actually showed some ****?

The prospect of NATO joining the war now after 4 years of dithering is not realistic, so I decided to set Blue Shield two years after a hypothetical ceasefire: which we all know Russia would eventually break.

I wrote this as usual, as a warning, and as a wakeup call. As EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas famously said, “Putin will not stop, until someone stops him.' So, what if someone calls Putin's bluff and exposes his military for the paper tiger it is?

What right do I have to write a novel about Ukraine? None. But while I don’t claim first hand insight into the war, I do have some insight into Ukrainian émigré culture, from my youth as a football player, when I captained the Ukrainian Soccer Club (USC Lions) in Adelaide, Australia. It was there I learned how fiercely Ukrainians feel about their country, and their culture. How strong their loyalty is to each other. How amazingly brave and fearless they can be. And yes, how hard they can party!

I have closely studied the war in Ukraine and how it is fought out of both professional and personal interest. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Putin will bring his territorial ambitions to Europe, and my own family will be in the firing line. Moscow is only 2.5 hours’ flying time from where I am writing this. Two minutes for a Kinzhal launched from Russian Kaliningrad. I have skin in this game, and if you are reading this, I would argue you do too, no matter where you live.

On the tech

All of the technologies featured in this novel are either already deployed in the militaries of the combatants shown or in active development. Check the glossary for more details on individual platforms. Make sure to browse the comprehensive GLOSSARY that comes with all my novels!

Drone warfare features heavily in Blue Shield, of course. Ukraine is the undisputed world leader in drone warfare and innovations such as drone anti-jamming technology, autonomous terminal guidance or visual positioning systems. Ukraine also recently reported the world’s first documented example of an enemy soldier surrendering to a ground drone.

Western technologies discussed in this novel are all real, and highlight the massive capability gap between Western militaries and Russian. Russia cannot build true stealth aircraft, or new-generation tanks. Its most-used drones are designs adapted from Iran. It sends its soldiers to battle in Ukraine not in mechanized infantry vehicles anymore, but in stolen civilian sedans, on motocross bikes and quad bikes, or just on foot. Its air force and army are equipped with Cold War–era weapon systems. Even the much-hyped Oreshnik, featured in this novel, is nothing but a Cold War ballistic missile fitted with conventional instead of nuclear warheads.

But Russia has a massive manpower advantage, right?

In early March 2026 Russia massed its forces and launched its spring offensive. Two weeks later it culminated, beaten, with 35,000 Russian troops dead. Ninety percent were killed by Ukrainian drones. At the time of writing, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates Russia has lost as many as 325,000 killed, and 875,000 wounded, since 2022. That is already more casualties in this single conflict than the US sustained across all theaters in World War II.

But of course, Russia’s leader still retains the ability to unleash nuclear Armageddon on the West, destroying his own nation in the process. So should the West call Russia’s bluff in Ukraine, or allow Russian aggression to continue unchecked because of the threat its unstable regime might deploy nuclear weapons? I consider that a rhetorical question.

Blue Shield covers only the first phase of a possible new war with Russia. What happens next? Blue Shield 2: DNIPRO is coming in summer 2026!

FX Holden

Copenhagen 2026

Grab the novel here:

US https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

CA https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

AU https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

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BLUE SHIELD OUT NOW!!

FX Holden — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

READ THE USA READERS' FAVORITE REVIEW OF 'BLUE SHIELD' BY FX HOLDEN

"If you are looking for a fast-paced military thriller flavored with high-octane action, high-stakes drama, espionage, political intrigue, and suspense, Blue Shield by FX Holden is a must-read."

OUT NOW!

US https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

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"Basing the story’s premise on the Russia-Ukraine War, Holden describes how events might unfold if NATO allies directly participated in the conflict and Russia declared a full-scale war on them. Holden’s expansive and impressive world-building brought the war to life on the pages, capturing the air, navy, and land combat. Beyond providing insight into the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the story also highlights the military and political dynamics involved, as well as the machinery used. It also highlights how a full-scale war with Russia and NATO allies may impact the conflict. While the loss will be immense, there will be clarity from the confrontation when the dust settles."

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LONG READ - Tech featured in BLUE SHIELD by FX Holden

FX Holden — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Last days to preorder and save ... do a starving author a favor and forward this info packed email to a friend!

Hey there, here is a preview of the tech featured in the upcoming action thriller set in Ukraine, 'BLUE SHIELD' by FX Holden: AI assisted 'terminal targeting guidance.'

BUT TELL US ABOUT BLUE SHIELD!

What if NATO nations called Russia’s bluff in Ukraine?

A fragile UN monitored ceasefire in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Both sides have used the pause in fighting to rearm and regroup. Despite vague ‘security guarantees’ to Ukraine from NATO's Coalition of the Willing, there is no question Russia will attack again – but where? It could mean the start of a new war in Europe, but this gripping action thriller asks ‘what if’ …

What if NATO countries act with resolve next time, and come to the defense of Ukraine at the first sign of a new war?

Ukraine Air Force pilot Vadim 'Beartooth' Korenchuk is testing new Brimstone missiles on his 30 year old Su-25 Frogfoot 'Frankenplane.' He doesn't believe for a moment the ceasefire will hold, but will his nation and its Coalition allies be ready this time?

In the skies over south-west Ukraine, USAF Captain Georgia 'Cyborg' Leeson identifies six Russian fighters approaching the Ukrainian DMZ. Is it just another provocation, or the first move in a new war?

Under the surface of the Black Sea, commander of the Turkish submarine Murat Reis, Captain Cem Keles, closes on a Russian Kilo class submarine as it rises to missile launch depth. Turkey is a member of the Coalition of the Willing but he is operating under peacetime rules of engagement: what can he do if it actually launches missiles at Ukraine?

Looking out to sea from Lebedivka in Ukraine's Budjak region, US Defense Intelligence Agency Clandestine Service collections officer, Captain Siku Smith, sees the low grey silhouettes of Russian warships approach on what Russia claims is a humanitarian mission to resupply its stranded troops in Moldova. Between Smith and the Russian warships is a belt of sea mines a kilometer deep. At his back is a Ukrainian Neptune coastal missile battery. The Russian convoy can't come ashore here, can it?

At the Coalition of the Willing Joint Operations Center (JOC), Poland, Head of Intelligence Lieutenant Colonel Carmine Lewis sees the opening moves in a new war unfolding, and warns her colleagues that the target of the coming attack may not be Ukraine at all, but the Coalition itself. Will the Coalition hold, or shatter under the pressure of the coming Russian onslaught?

#FutureWarfare #AIDrones #MachineVision #AutonomousWeaponry #SakerScout #ElectronicWarfare #Technothriller #KindleDeals #ActionThriller #MilitaryFiction #FireAndForget #ActionThriller #UkraineWar #KindleUnlimited #BookTok #NewRelease2026 #TechnoThriller #DroneWarfare #SpecialOps #WarFiction #SpyThriller #GeopoliticalThriller #Bookstagram #MustRead #modernwarfare

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BLUE SHIELD release moves closer

FX Holden — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

COMING APRIL 17: ORDER EBOOK NOW AND SAVE 60%!

"If you've never read Holden, strap in and hold on for the ride of your life..." Readers Favorite

What if NATO nations called Russia’s bluff in Ukraine?

What if NATO countries act with resolve next time, and come to the defense of Ukraine at the first sign of a new war?

US https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

CA https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

AU https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

Ukraine Air Force pilot Vadim 'Beartooth' Korenchuk is testing new Brimstone missiles on his 30 year old Su-25 Frogfoot 'Frankenplane.' He doesn't believe for a moment the ceasefire will hold, but will his nation and its Coalition allies be ready this time?

In the skies over south-west Ukraine, USAF Captain Georgia 'Cyborg' Leeson identifies six Russian fighters approaching the Ukrainian DMZ. Is it just another provocation, or the first move in a new war?

Under the surface of the Black Sea, commander of the Turkish submarine Murat Reis, Captain Cem Keles, closes on a Russian Kilo class submarine as it rises to missile launch depth. Turkey is a member of the Coalition of the Willing but he is operating under peacetime rules of engagement: what can he do if it actually launches missiles at Ukraine?

At the Coalition of the Willing Joint Operations Center (JOC), Poland, Head of Intelligence Lieutenant Colonel Carmine Lewis sees the opening moves in a new war unfolding, and warns her colleagues that the target of the coming attack may not be Ukraine at all, but the Coalition itself. Will the Coalition hold, or shatter under the pressure of the coming Russian onslaught?

Why military and techno-thriller readers love FX Holden:

"FX Holden is the Nostradamus of military fiction writers..." US Readers Favorite.
"Clancy fans will be pleased..." US Publishers Weekly
"Full-throttle action..." BookLife Editor's Pick
"In the spirit of Tom Clancy! Well done. I’m very techy, retired military. An engaging fast paced story. ..." Amazon reader
"Tom Clancy type excitement and military geekiness right here." Amazon reader
"Nothing has come close to Jake Grafton until now. If you love high tech fast military action, in the skies, with more than a little attitude, then you should love this read." Amazon reader

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Have you met the cast of BLUE SHIELD?

FX Holden — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Part #1 - the pilots, and the reluctant tanker

Characters in the upcoming action thriller 'BLUE SHIELD' by FX Holden:

USAF Captain Georgia 'Cyborg' Leeson, 495th Fighter Squadron “Valkyries.

From the novel:

Gribov and the American heard muffled detonations off the coast, ran outside and up to the lip of the revetment to see foam and mist rising from the surface of the sea on the near horizon, a low gray warship just visible as it accelerated away from the coast.

“Russian mine hunter,” Gribov said. In the daylight, the spiderweb of burn scars across the Ukrainian officer’s face and neck looked tight, white, and painful. “Must have triggered a mine.”

“Triggered a hundred mines,” Smith corrected him. The dull explosions were continuing, up and down the coast, north and south. And then he saw something else. White contrails, lifting off the sea.

The veteran Ukrainian Captain recognized them immediately. “Missiles!” he yelled, grabbing Smith by his collar and hauling him back down the revetment. “We have to get inside!”

They ran down the side of the embankment, arms flailing, Gribov yelling to a squad of his men who were standing around, smoking by a supply truck. “In cover! Get to cover!” he yelled, standing by the doorway of the bunker, shoving first Smith, and then his men bodily through the bunker entrance before taking one last look outside, and slamming the iron door behind him.

There had been a pregnant moment of near silence, broken only by the panting breath of the men in the small concrete room. One of the men asked, “What the hell, Captain?” Just before the first Russian warhead landed right on top of their fully loaded, fueled and armed Neptune missile launcher, and hell was exactly where Gribov suddenly found himself.

PREORDER FOR APRIL save 60%!

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AU https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

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FX asks 'What If?'

FX Holden — Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What if NATO wasn't afraid to call Russia's bluff in Ukraine?

In the very near future, a fragile UN monitored ceasefire in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Both sides have used the pause in fighting to rearm and regroup. Despite vague ‘security guarantees’ to Ukraine from NATO, there is no question Russia will attack again – but where?

PREORDER NOW FOR APRIL AND SAVE 60%!

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0G3LDN8DG

It could mean the end of Ukrainian sovereignty and the start of a new war in Europe, but this gripping action thriller asks ‘what if’ …

⚔️What if NATO acted with resolve next time?

⚔️What if it set up an air defense perimeter over Ukraine, like it did for Bosnia?

⚔️What if it put boots on the ground inside Ukraine, like it did in Iraq?

⚔️What if it sent ships into the Black Sea, like it did off Africa?

In true Future War style, BLUE SHIELD focuses on the stories of several ordinary people thrown into the onflict, from the air, in space, on the ground, and at sea. And on all sides of the conflict.

"If you've never read Holden, be prepared to strap in and hold on for the ride of your life" Readers' Favorite.

#MilitaryThriller #ActionThriller #UkraineWar #KindleUnlimited #BookTok #NewRelease2026 #TechnoThriller #DroneWarfare #SpecialOps #WarFiction #SpyThriller #GeopoliticalThriller #Bookstagram #MustRead #ModernWarfare

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Iran War: what they said and what it means... #1

FX Holden — Wed, 4 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What they said: US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine announced on March 2 that “local air superiority has been established [over Iran].”

What it means: "Local" air superiority means temporary control over a defined area and time window.

In a large country like Iran this probably means dominance over major cities or specific regions. This is one step down from unqualified air superiority since it means there are still areas of Iran where air defenses are operating and pose a threat.

The use of B-1 bombers in Iran (announced yesterday) demonstrates that the US is degrading Iranian air defenses to the point that it feels comfortable using older-generation non-stealth aircraft to conduct attacks in Iran now.

Ironically the biggest threat to USAF appears to be enthusiastic amateurs.

What they said: “Several U.S. fighter jets have crashed over Kuwait," Kuwait's military has confirmed.

What it means: "We accidentally shot them down ourselves, then they crashed."

CENTCOM said three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles were engaging Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles and drones at around 7 p.m. local time when they were hit by friendly fire. All six aircrew ejected safely, the command said in a statement Monday.

Ejected safely does not mean 'escaped uninjured.' Six US servicemembers have been killed in the war with Iran thus far. The servicemembers were killed in an Iranian attack on Camp Arifjan in Kuwait on March 1. Eighteen US service members have been seriously wounded in the war to 2 Mar, according to CENTCOM Spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins.

What they said: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that four ballistic missiles were fired towards the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. "Following the proud actions of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the attack on American-Zionist enemy targets, the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier of the US Army was attacked with four ballistic missiles."

What it means: We missed.

Iran has previously claimed its anti-ship ballistic missiles have home-on-radar and active seeker capabilities that allow them to hit moving ships at sea (Hormuz-2). The US did not disclose whether the missiles were intercepted in flight, or just missed, but the latter seems likely from this comment from CENTCOM. "Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE. The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close."

#OperationEpicFury #OperationRoaringLion #IranWar2026 #USIsraelStrikesIran #TehranUnderAttack #MiddleEastConflict #IranRetaliation #GlobalSecurity #IranCrisis

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The US and Israel are trying to achieve regime change in Iran - what are the chances?

FX Holden — Tue, 3 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Historians and analysts who looks for precedents will tell you the historical record of air power suggests that while a "strategic air offensive" can degrade an adversary’s military and industrial capacity, it is almost never a sufficient tool for forcing regime change on its own.

They will cite the failure of Germany's WW2 Blitz, the Allies Strategic Bombing of Germany, or Russia's missile and drone campaign in Ukraine. They'll tell you 'sure' the NATO air campaign in Serbia/Kosovo in 1999 resulted months later in the removal of Slobodan Milošević, but that was the result of a well-organized internal democratic opposition (Otpor), and the credible threat of a looming NATO ground invasion, neither of which are the case in Iran.

But here's where it MIGHT work: redefine 'regime change' along the lines the US recently achieved in Venezuela. Call it the FLIP model - the removal of the current hostile leadership and its replacement with one more 'amenable'. THAT could be possible.

One scenario that fits the FLIP model is the "Praetorian Coup" scenario which sees the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) so existentially weakened that to survive, its officers sideline the clerical establishment to transform the state from a theocracy into a military-led nationalist autocracy.

This transition would require a leadership vaccuum such as the Supreme Leader's death (check) and the clerics' nomination of a candidate the military doesn't support (pending). The IRGC must fail to inflict severe damage on its enemies (pending) and there has to be sufficient attrition of the IRGC's capabilities/leadership that it sees an existential threat to its ability to retain power (underway). And so it FLIPS - ditches the clerics in a palace coup, installing a military junta.

This "Western-leaning" shift would not be a transition to democracy, but rather a pivot toward a state model similar to Egypt’s, where the military maintains internal control while seeking international legitimacy to restart the economy.

The junta then makes a "survivalist bargain" regarding the nuclear program. To halt US or Israeli military strikes and trigger the lifting of crippling sanctions, the IRGC junta would offer to freeze or dismantle key nuclear assets in exchange for a ceasefire and economic guarantees. For the West, a "junta they can do business with" provides a more stable, predictable alternative to the chaos of a total state collapse or a protracted insurgency.

The people of Iran would be freed from religious oppression, but still find themselves living in an autocracy. That's still 'success' if the US/Israeli campaign objective is a Venezuelan style FLIP, not a transition to democracy.

But it aint going to be a cakewalk.

(Pictured, IRGC on parade.)

#OperationEpicFury #OperationRoaringLion #IranWar2026 #USIsraelStrikesIran #TehranUnderAttack #MiddleEastConflict #IranRetaliation #GlobalSecurity #IranCrisis

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Interested in being a beta reader for Blue Shield?

FX Holden — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Hey there! The first unproofed draft of Blue Shield will be ready for beta reading next week and I'd love to hear from you if you'd like to volunteer to help as a beta reader, especially if you are a current or former armed forces member (any service!)

Details on the novel here: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

What do I ask of my volunteer beta readers?

Not proofreading - that is done professionally after your input (though all errors flagged are appreciated!)
Help with authenticity - military jargon, dialogue, weapons and weapon systems, tactics, technical details
Reader experience - your thoughts on plot, pacing, characters and their stories, who should live, who should die!

You get: the first uncut gem of a draft of my new novel, and an Amazon ebook voucher in exchange for your honest review!

You can join a discussion group on Facebook to exchange your thoughts and ask questions, or wait for a survey I send out at the end of 3 weeks. I will then ask you to write a one or two sentence honest review of the book once it is published. Being an active participant is essential. If you'd just like a free read, you can see the free preview of Blue Shield here! https://BookHip.com/RSQVGBQ

This offer is exclusive to my mailing list subscribers. I have a limited number of new spots on the beta team, and they fill fast, so please raise your hand if you are interested!

Reply to fxholden@yandex.com!

Cheers,

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FX asks what the next four years could look like for Ukraine...

FX Holden — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Today the Ukraine-Russia war enters its fifth year. Either you believe Ukraine is winning and it should persevere, or you believe it is losing and should sue for peace. Which is it*?

(*I am summarizing consensus views here, not my own.)

💀The Case for "Ukraine is Losing"💀

Territory: The trend is one of (extremely) slow, grinding Russian progress. Ukraine has not regained significant territory since late 2022, and the defensive lines are under immense pressure in the Donbas. Compared with Ukraine, Russia has near limitless manpower reserves and unless its economy collapses (limited signs of that so far), Putin is banking on Russia outlasting Ukraine.

Lives: Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis. With a smaller population than Russia, it cannot sustain a war of attrition indefinitely. Every soldier lost is a deeper wound to the country’s future recovery. After four years of war, young men approaching conscription age are fleeing the country, soldiers are deserting and though general conscription is needed, the government and public resist it. Ukraine has crippling manpower problems in the military, and in society.

Economy: The cost to Ukraine, and of supporting Ukraine, is astronomical. Over 30% of Ukraine's GDP was lost in the initial wake of the invasion. Infrastructure damage exceeds $150 billion, and the country is entirely dependent on unreliable Western political will for survival. EU loans needed to keep the lights on in Ukraine in 2026 are being held up by pro-Russian Hungary and Slovakia. It is hard to see how Ukraine's defense can be funded this year, let alone into the future.

🔥The Case for "Ukraine is Winning"🔥

Territory: After four years of war Russia occupies only 20% of the country and most of that was captured in the first year. Ukraine has successfully halted major advances over the last two years and even won back lost territory in the last couple of weeks. The "trend" is a static front where Russia pays an exorbitant price in equipment and men for increments of meters, not kilometers. At this "garden snail" pace, even reaching a major objective like Kyiv would take decades. As long as Ukraine survives as a sovereign nation, it is winning.

Lives: Proponents argue that the casualty ratio heavily favors Ukraine. By fighting a defensive war of attrition, Ukraine is systematically dismantling the Russian military’s long-term offensive capability. The harsh political reality is that Ukrainian lives are buying Europe time to arm itself to deter further Russian aggression. Putin's larger war aim was to push NATO back to its 1991 borders and rewrite the European security architecture. It is naive to think if victorious in Ukraine he would stop so whatever Ukraine does to frustrate this aim, is a victory for Ukraine, and Europe.

Economy: Ukraine remains integrated into the Western financial and security architecture. Despite the damage, its economy has stabilized with international aid, while Russia’s economy is increasingly distorted by defense industrial spending, total reliance on oil and gas revenues, and long-term isolation. An increasing willingness in the EU to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, to restrict Russia's resource revenues, and target its shadow fleet of oil and gas transports is bearing fruit. Putin's war is not economically sustainable. He will eventually have to settle for peace on terms more favorable to Ukraine than his current maximalist demands.

So where do you land? Is Ukraine winning? Or should it cut its losses and sue for peace?

All wars end. A ceasefire will come eventually. Ukraine's PM, Zelensky, is convinced Russia would resume its war after regrouping. He told the BBC this week, ""It would probably satisfy him for a while... he needs a pause... but once he recovers, our European partners say it could take three to five years. In my opinion, he could recover in no more than a couple of years. Where would he go next? We do not know, but that he would want to continue is a fact."

⚔️In that scenario, what would happen if the Coalition of the Willing (NATO nations) responded with RESOLVE at the first signs of renewed agression. What if they called Russia's bluff instead of dithering and delaying? Here's what that could look like:

https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

⚔️Preorder now and save 60% on the launch price!

#UkraineWar #Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics #KindleDeals #BookBargains

Sources used to prepare this post:

Russia Matters (Harvard Kennedy School) - Feb 2026 Report

Council on Foreign Relations - Global Conflict Tracker

Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

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Got any tips for books on Iran?

FX Holden — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Iran is in the headlines, so what's on your shelves? (Or in your Kindle). I've read these:

The Persian (2025, 4.2 on Goodreads) by David McCloskey: Written by a former CIA analyst, this recent release opens with a surprise strike on Iran and follows a CIA officer and an Iranian official attempting to prevent a regional collapse.

Protect and Defend (2007, 4.4) by Vince Flynn: Part of the Mitch Rapp series. After a strike on an Iranian nuclear facility, the U.S. faces a retaliatory plot from a Hezbollah mastermind. Capture or Kill is also supposedly good (haven't read it tho.)

The Tehran Initiative (2011, 4.4) by Joel C. Rosenberg: A political thriller focusing on a CIA operative working to stop an Iranian nuclear threat before a full-scale U.S./Israeli military intervention becomes inevitable.

The Island (2021, 4.7) by Ben Coes: Features a massive Iranian-led attack on Manhattan and the United Nations. It includes a U.S. retaliatory strike on the Iranian Presidential Palace in Tehran.

And for getting inspiration on a topic (like Iran) I always go to BookDNA first ... much better than Goodreads because it is curated.

https://bookdna.com/bookshelf/iran

Oh, and of course I should give my own a plug - have you read GOLAN (4-5 on Goodreads)?

GOLAN, This is the Future of War, asks a question few want to consider. What will happen if Iran acquires nuclear weapons in the next ten years? In true Future of War style, GOLAN explores the question through the eyes of front line participants on all sides, in a conflict set ten years into the future. Featuring military tech that is on the drawing boards today and characters you won’t easily forget, GOLAN throws the reader straight into the center of a nuclear storm and doesn’t ease up.

https://www.amazon.com/GOLAN-This-Future-War-ebook/dp/B093QLRV84

Any recommendations from your shelves?

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Beachhead brings it!

FX Holden — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What a great coincidence! Just got this half price deal from my audiobook publisher:

https://www.audiobooks.com/promotions/promotedBook/760452/beachhead?refId=239324

At the same time as this reader review ticked in!

J. M Ullman

5.0 out of 5 stars Sensational

Reviewed in the United States on February 12, 2026

Brilliant. realistic. Troubling. Super well written with great characters and plots. Among the best of its genre I have ever read.

All Aggressor novels are available on audio - jump in (or jump back in) NOW! See the audio catalogue here:

https://www.audible.com/author/FX-Holden/B07J47L7KB

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Is Ukraine the next Korea?

FX Holden — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Are we headed for a permanent Korea-style partition of Ukraine? This question has been on my mind as Abu Dhabi hosts the latest round of trilateral 'peace talks'. For the geopolitics geeks like me, the parallels to the Korean War 1953 are impossible to ignore: a grinding war of attrition, a frozen frontline, and two sides unable to achieve total victory but unwilling to concede defeat.

The "Yes, Korea" case rests on the stark reality of the current map. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, and despite significant Western aid, the frontline has moved only incrementally over the past year. Like the 38th Parallel, today’s line of contact is becoming a de facto border, enforced not by treaty, but by millions of mines, drone walls and deep trench networks that neither side can decisively pierce. An armistice may well be the only way to stop the "meat grinder" while allowing Ukraine to rebuild.

In this scenario, Kyiv would not legally cede land but would accept a "frozen" status. This would enable the remaining 80% of the country to flourish as a modern, high-tech democracy—much as South Korea transformed from a war-torn agrarian society into a global economic titan.

Security guarantees are the linchpin of this comparison. South Korea’s survival was predicated on the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty and the permanent presence of U.S. "tripwire" troops. For Ukraine, 2026 has brought concrete discussions of a "Coalition of the Willing," with several European nations pledging to deploy troops for post-war monitoring and defense to ensure Moscow does not simply use a ceasefire to re-arm.

(One possible future: BLUE SHIELD by FX HOLDEN. Preorder now! https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if.../dp/B0G3LDN8DG)

However, the "Not Korea" case highlights fundamental differences that could make a Korea-style peace fragile or impossible. Unlike the Korean Peninsula, which is a defined geographic tip, the 1,000km Ukrainian front is largely open plain. Maintaining a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) of this scale would require a multinational force far larger than anything currently being debated in Brussels or Washington.

Furthermore, the political "will to win" in Moscow remains a massive obstacle. While the 1953 armistice followed the death of Joseph Stalin, Vladimir Putin remains firmly in power in 2026, viewing any sovereign, Western-aligned Ukraine as an existential threat. Critics argue that a ceasefire without a clear path to NATO or EU membership is merely a "tactical pause" for the Kremlin.

Demographics also tell a different story. South Korea had a burgeoning youth population to drive its "Miracle on the Han River." Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis, with millions of citizens displaced abroad and a birth rate at historic lows. A permanent partition could starve the remaining Ukrainian state of the human capital needed for a Korean-style economic surge.

The role of the United States is the ultimate variable. The 2026 geopolitical landscape is defined by an American administration pushing for "operational realism," shifting the burden of European security back onto the Europeans. Without a permanent U.S. "backstop" similar to the Eighth Army in Seoul, any "DMZ" in Donbas remains a high-risk gamble.

There is also the question of internal Ukrainian politics. President Zelenskyy faces immense pressure to maintain "territorial integrity," making the formal acceptance of a frozen line a potential flashpoint for domestic unrest. Unlike 1953, where the armistice was signed by military commanders, a 2026 deal requires the signature of leaders who must answer to an exhausted but defiant electorate.

Economically, a partition would create two radically different "Ukraines", just as it did for North and South Korea. The occupied East would likely become a stagnant, improverished, militarized Russian province, while the West would integrate into the European single market. This divergence would create a "Berlin Wall" effect in the east of Europe, birthing a new Cold War frontier for decades to come.

Yet, as temperatures in Ukraine drop to -20°C and the energy grid remains under constant drone bombardment, the "least bad" option begins to look like a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitically, a Korea-style outcome is rarely a choice; it is an exhaustion-driven acknowledgment of a stalemate that neither side can afford to break.

The security guarantees currently being drafted—incorporating "advanced strike capabilities" and "integrated air defense"—are designed to make the cost of a Russian breach prohibitively high. This "deterrence by denial" is the modern equivalent of the 1950s tripwire, intended to turn a temporary ceasefire into a permanent, if tense, peace.

Ultimately, the Korea model is not about "peace" in the romantic sense; it is about "stability." The 'parallels' are frightening (see what I did there?)

If Ukraine can secure its borders, even at the cost of temporarily sacrificing territory, it can begin the generational task of reconstruction and European integration. The "South Korea of the East" remains a powerful, if painful, vision for the future.

We are currently watching the blueprint of 1953 being redrawn for the 21st century. Whether this leads to a "miracle" or a "menace" depends entirely on the depth of the security guarantees and the speed of Ukraine’s economic recovery. The guns may soon fall silent, but the "war" of systems—democracy vs. autocracy—is only just beginning its long, frozen phase.

The next few months of negotiations will determine if the "38th Parallel" of Europe becomes a reality. As the dust settles on the Abu Dhabi talks, the world must prepare for a Ukraine that is divided by force, but united in its aspiration to thrive behind a new, high-tech Iron Curtain.

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Military #Europe #NATO #UkraineRussiaWar #Defense #Security #Geopolitics #Strategy

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Hot off the press preview of Blue Shield by FX Holden

FX Holden — Fri, 6 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Grab your FREE preview chapter here!

https://dl.bookfunnel.com/ptr1vg5lq6

And preorder now to help a starving author's new book off to a good start, and save 50% on the list price for yourself!!

PREORDER: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

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Two FX Holden freebies!

FX Holden — Tue, 3 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

If you love a good action thriller and haven't read ORBITAL, US readers can grab it here for free this week. There are 7 books in the FUTURE WAR series and this is a good example. They all take a potential conflict, bubbling just below the surface and play it out a few years into the future, with the weapons systems that are on the drawing board today.

AJ is a maintenance tech at Sol Vista care facility. He likes the quiet life. Visiting with his ma. A burger at Fatty's. Surfing the Shifting Sea. Staying in flow. But his flow gets sorely disrupted when a new resident moves into Sol Vista and AJ soon finds himself on the run from an interplanetary assassin, trying to track down a hacker otherwise known as Destroyer of Worlds, all so he can save the life of his new girlfriend, who turns out NOT to be the laid back, Territorian skater girl he thought she was. Sometimes the flow is hard to find, even for a cyber.

US readers can get DEEP CORE free here: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07VM9W738

Not in the USA? Don't worry, freebies coming your way soon!

Cheers

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January update & Iran prognosis

FX Holden — Sat, 31 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Hey there!

Wow, crazy year already, right, and it's only January. Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland ... I have to admit the news is coming so fast I tune it out sometimes to immerse myself in research and writing. And then I tune in again and ... Iran. My thoughts on that one are at the end of this newsletter if you are interested.

But what's next regarding FX Holden novels? I am about 2/3rds finished with BLUE SHIELD, my next 'What-if' speculative novel after World War H. These are novels that spring from asking myself 'what-if?' In this case, assuming some kind of security guarantees are offered to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire, what-if Russia breaks the ceasefire and NATO nations actually step up and call Russia's bluff?

You can pre-order BLUE SHIELD today, get the ebook half price, and help a starving author's book off to a good launch!

US https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

CA: https://www.amazon.ca/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

AU: https://www.amazon.com.au/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

Next up is one for the Bunny O'Hare fans, a follow up to Antarctica STORM and Africa STORM: Global STORM.

The setup: Aggressor Inc.'s billionaire owner, Mark Aaronsen, has entered the space race and licensed US antimatter tech to power the first crewed mission to Mars. But he needs a volunteer for the test flight. Who would be crazy enough to put their hand up for what could be a one-way ticket to eternity? Who else...

This novel will see anti-hero Karen 'Bunny' O'Hare catapulted into a new and terrifying conflict, from which she will not return.

(And speaking of new and terrifying conflicts...)

What is happening inside Iran as the US military buildup continues?

Here's a former intel officer's take. A month ago I wrote: "The US (and Israel) will increase covert support for protest groups inside Iran. Unless drought conditions in the Tehran region ease, the city will face apocalyptic water shortages and regime continuity will be threatened. This creates an opportunity for US/Israeli military or covert intelligence operations — assassinations, sabotage, and destabilization."

That's what's happening right now. As the carrier strike group moves in, the US CIA and Israeli Mossad are actively working with protest organizers inside Iran to ensure they are prepared if/when US military strikes aimed at destabilising the regime are used. That's why the US is not rushing to put the pieces in place (they could attack tomorrow with assets already in theater if they wanted to) - influence and destablisation networks take time to co-opt, activate and prepare.

But what comes next? Fantastic analysis by Frank Gardener of the BBC here on 7 possible outcomes:

audio https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/p0mxv9j2

article https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3kenge1k9o

In short, they are:

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies 'Venezuela style'

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule (a highly likely outcome)

4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbours

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos (doomsday scenario, also highly possible)

Which of these do YOU think are most likely?

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