Let's do some wargaming ...

It is October 2029 and China takes advantage of war in Europe, and US election distractions, to invade Taiwan. The US does not intervene in this 'internal Chinese conflict' and Taiwan falls within a matter of weeks. Sensing opportunity, China then declares a 'naval exclusion zone' in the entire '9 dash' area of the South China Sea, claiming it as Chinese territorial waters. Any foreign fishing vessel or warship entering the zone will be challenged, impounded or in the case of warships, fired on if it doesn't withdraw,

The US sends a taskforce into the South China Sea to challenge the Chinese blockade and assert the right to freedom of navigation. A brief conflict occurs in which Chinese aircraft and naval vessels attack the US taskforce and sink a US frigate. The two nations stand on the brink of war.

This could be the preface to any number of military fiction thrillers, because it is also a very plausible future reality. Now, 'what if' the US decided to go to war in this scenario. The first phase of such a conflict would be at sea, and in the air.

At sea, the US is already facing a well documented 'ship gap' as Chinese Navy shipbuilding overtakes the US:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/does-america-face-ship-gap-china

But what about the 'air gap'? Let's look at this both in terms of distance, and capability.

(C) FXHolden

The Tyranny of Distance

Let's assume that the Philippines, a fickle defense partner at best, refuses the US permission to fly from its territory for fear of being drawn into a war. But Japan is not really in a position to deny the US use of its bases in Okinawa. And the US could only operate strategic bombers out of Guam, it is too far away to base fighter aircraft.

The graphic above shows the challenge. Without aerial refueling (for which US does not have sufficient capacity to maintain combat operations tempo in a high intensity peer-peer air war), the main US fighter/attack aircraft types could reach Taiwan, but do not have the range to operate over the South China Sea. Whereas China can use bases both on mainland China and Hainan (and potentially Taiwan), and those it has already built in the South China Sea for exactly this reason.

Ah, but aircraft carriers! These could operate off the east coasts of the Philippines and/or Malaysia, in international waters.

But as you can see below, this would put carriers within range of Chinese aircraft (armed with YJ-21 hypersonic missiles) and submarines, while still not allowing meaningful coverage of the South China Sea except for its most southerly area, where the US might be able to deny China freedom to use its Spratly Islands airfields and harbors.

(PS, by this timeframe, China will also have 4 operational aircraft carriers.)

(C) FXHolden

So, the US has a range problem, and no plan to address it. The 'Next Gen Air Defense (NGAD)' project is stalled and will, optimistically, not deliver for eight to ten years. Giving China a clear window in which to act.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/the-u-s-air-forces-ngad-6th-generation-fighter-is-making-a-comeback/

The Capability Gap

China already possesses stealth aircraft to rival the F-35: the J-20 land-based and J-35 carrier-based fighters.

To meet the challenges of operating over the vast distances of the Pacific and South China Sea, the US would need a 'Regional Fighter' concept: a large aircraft with greater range, ideally able to stand off and launch long range air-air and air-surface missiles, plus collaborative combat aircraft to do the air-air fighting for it. As noted above, the US NGAD program, even if it meets this need for range (which is not clear) has no working prototypes in testing and its program will not deliver before the mid 2030s.

China, however, has a sixth generation prototype 'regional fighter' already flying, and (unlike eg Russia) a track record of moving quickly from flying prototype to full scale production.

Meet the J-36, otherwise known as the JH-XX, a J-20 successor?

It is unique in configuration - bigger than an F-35, smaller than a B-21, neither bomber nor fighter but both - has three engines for supersonic cruising without afterburner and a range that would enable it to cover all of the South China Sea from Chinese mainland bases, or to easily hit US bases on Okinawa (or the Philippines). It is pictured below, in flight, in December 2024. See the end of this article for tech specs.

A variant of the planned US B-21 Raider could be developed to compete with China's J-36 regional fighter-bomber, but this would require it to be modified to deliver air-air weapons (via eg a rotary launcher) and launch or at least work with collaborative combat aircraft. These capabilities are not currently planned.

But that is not the only area the US will be playing catchup. This year China also unveiled a flying prototype of its sixth-generation shorter range fighter,

Meet the Shenyang J-50, a J-35 successor?

On 26 December 2024, a new Shenyang prototype aircraft, believed to be part of the Chinese sixth-generation fighter program, was spotted near Shenyang Aircraft Corporation's facilities. Unconfirmed reports suggested the Shenyang fighter made its maiden flight on 20 December 2024. The Shenyang aircraft prototype seemed to be smaller than the Chengdu one. It was trailed by a Shenyang J-16 strike fighter as the chase plane.

The Shenyang prototype fighter features a cranked arrow configuration with sharply swept lambda wings with droopped wing tips, two ventral intakes with diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI), possibly folding empennage, and twin-engine bays. The medium size of the aircraft was speculated to be more suitable for operations on aircraft carriers.The cockpit canopy was not visible from any available footage of the aircraft, leading to diverging theories on it being a crewed, uncrewed, or optionally crewed aircraft.

It may show itself to be an alternative to the USAF Fury/Gambit CCA program, but appears more substantial, stealthy and less 'expendable' than those efforts. The US Navy tested such a design, but discontinued its X-47B uncrewed fighter project, which the J-50 very much resembles.

In September 2022, United States Air Force (USAF) General Mark D. Kelly, head of the Air Combat Command (ACC) suggested China was on track with its six-generation fighter program, and he believed the Chinese designs use a 'system of systems' approach like the United States, which allows for "exponential" reductions in stealth signature and improvements in processing power and sensing.

Ah, but strategic bombers! The US greatly outmatches China in strategic bomber capability, both stealth and conventional, right? These have the range to operate from bases in Japan, Guam, Australia, even the US mainland or Europe. So the US could close the air gap and use these to wage a war of attrition against Chinese ships, ports and ground forces that China could not match.

In quality, yes (until the mid 2030s). In quantity: no, China has nearly double as many strategic bombers, and without US fighters able to reach them at standoff missile launch ranges, stealth is not as important a factor.

A window of opportunity wide open

China will have operational sixth generation fighter aircraft before the US NGAD program delivers, this is almost certain. One of these will be a 'regional fighter' capable of long range operation in concert with collaborative combat aircraft. The US has an air warfare capability gap, both in terms of range, and soon also technology.

China will soon have (some say already has) a navy capable of achieving and securing sea dominance in the Taiwan Strait, East and South China seas, even in the face of US opposition. And in case you needed more evidence it is serious about achieving its aims of unification of China and dominance of the South China Sea, more emerged this week.

According to Naval News, China has built new special purpose barges which appear tailor made for amphibious assault. The barges may provide the PRC (People's Republic of China) with a unique way to offload large numbers of tanks directly onto Taiwanese roads (or supply contested atolls in the South China Sea). Two are seen in this photograph, up to five are planned.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

So, what do you think? If China moves on Taiwan and the South China Sea in the next five years, will the US be ready? Will it even be ready in ten years? Can it seriously contest China's ambitions in these theaters? Or is this fight already lost, with more pressing problems for US administrations to worry about than China's Taiwan and South China Sea ambitions - after all, does it really pose a threat to US interests in Asia if China achieves control of these theaters?

A thoughtful article on this last question is here: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/should-united-states-defend-or-ditch-taiwan-202772

This article will be featured on www.fxholden.com soon. Feel free to forward!

And now, for the tech geeks among you ...

TECH DATA: NEW CHINESE AIRCRAFT

Chengdu J-36: Technical Capabilities Summary

General Characteristics

• Length: Estimated between 20–26 meters
• Wingspan: Approximately 20 meters
• Wing Area: More than 190 square meters
• Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW): Estimated between 45,000–54,000 kg (100,000–120,000 lb)
• Design: Tailless, double-delta wing configuration with a trijet engine setup for enhanced stealth and aerodynamic performance

Performance

• Maximum Speed: Estimated to reach Mach 2.5
• Combat Radius: Approximately 3,000 km
• Endurance: Long-range endurance due to trijet configuration, supporting extended operations without compromising efficiency
• Supercruise Capability: Wing sweep angles indicate potential optimization for sustained supersonic flight without afterburners

Engines

• Powerplant:Speculated to use three modified WS-10 or WS-15 engines
• Potential future integration of variable cycle engines or other propulsion advancements
• Intake Design:Two under-wing caret inlets
• One dorsal intake with diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI)

Stealth Features

• All-Aspect Broadband Stealth: Optimized for minimal radar cross-section (RCS)
• Tailless Design: Enhances stealth characteristics by eliminating vertical stabilizers
• Flexible Control Surfaces: Indicate advanced aerodynamic control and further reduction in radar signature

Avionics & Sensor Capabilities

• Electro-Optical Systems: Multiple sensor windows for improved situational awareness
• Possible Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR): Suggests wide-area tracking capabilities
• Multispectral Sensor Integration: Designed for next-generation sensor fusion and battle networking

Weapons & Payload

• Primary Weapons Bay:Estimated length of 7.6 meters, capable of housing long-range PL-17 air-to-air missiles or large air-to-ground munitions
• Secondary Bays: Two smaller weapon bays flanking the main compartment for additional payload flexibility
• Missile & Munition Types:Air-to-air missiles for beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagements
• Air-to-surface precision-guided munitions
• Possible integration of hypersonic weapons
• Possible capability to carry air launched collaborative combat aircraft or drone swarms

Potential Roles & Strategic Implications

• Multirole Fighter-bomber: Likely capable of air superiority, interception, and deep strike missions
• Unmanned Teaming Integration: Designed to operate alongside or even air-launch unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) or drone swarms
• Electronic Warfare & Networking: Potential for airborne command-and-control (C2) functions
• Supercruising Strike Platform: Could serve as a long-range missile launch platform for anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) operations

The J-36 remains an emerging development, with much of its true capabilities still speculative. However, its design characteristics indicate a strong emphasis on stealth, endurance, sensor fusion, and high-speed performance, positioning it as a potential sixth-generation combat aircraft.

Shenyang J-50: Technical Capabilities Summary

General Characteristics

• Length: Exact dimensions are not publicly disclosed; however, the aircraft's design suggests a compact frame optimized for stealth and agility and smaller than the J-36 fighter-bomber type.
• Wingspan: Specific measurements remain classified; the lambda wing configuration indicates a focus on aerodynamic efficiency and reduced radar cross-section.
• Design: Tailless, twin-engine aircraft featuring a lambda wing design, which is notable for its sharp angles and smooth surfaces to enhance stealth capabilities. Swivelling wingtips for enhanced maneuvering.

Performance

• Maximum Speed: While precise figures are undisclosed, the aerodynamic design implies potential for high-speed operations, possibly exceeding Mach 2.
• Combat Radius: Not publicly available; however, design elements suggest a focus on extended operational range suitable for diverse mission profiles.
• Endurance: The aircraft's smaller form factor indicates an emphasis on shorter ranged missions, but with supercruise shortening time to target.
• Supercruise Capability: The advanced aerodynamic design suggests the potential for sustained supersonic flight without afterburners, enhancing fuel efficiency and mission endurance.

Engines

• Powerplant: Specific engine models have not been publicly identified; however, the twin-engine setup is likely optimized for a balance of speed, agility, and fuel efficiency.
• Intake Design: The aircraft features air intakes positioned and shaped to minimize radar deflection, contributing to its stealth profile.

Stealth Features

• All-Aspect Stealth: The tailless design and lambda wing configuration are optimized to minimize radar cross-section from all angles.
• Radar-Absorbent Materials: The airframe incorporates materials designed to reduce radar detectability.
• Infrared Signature Reduction: Engine placement and exhaust management are likely optimized to minimize infrared emissions, reducing susceptibility to heat-seeking threats.

Avionics & Sensor Capabilities

• Advanced Sensor Integration: The design suggests potential integration of cutting-edge sensors for enhanced situational awareness and target acquisition.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): The aircraft is expected to incorporate AI systems to assist in data processing, decision-making, and mission management.
• Network-Centric Warfare: Designed to operate within a networked combat environment, allowing seamless communication and coordination with other assets.

Weapons & Payload

• Primary Weapons Bay: Believed to accommodate up to four PL-17 air-to-air missiles, each approximately 6 meters in length with a reported range of 300 km, though some sources suggest up to 500 km.
• Secondary Bays: Additional weapon bays likely exist for housing various munitions, including air-to-ground ordnance and electronic warfare equipment.
• Missile & Munition Types: Capable of deploying a variety of weapons, such as long-range air-to-air missiles, precision-guided bombs, and potentially hypersonic missiles or drone swarms.

Potential Roles & Strategic Implications

• Multirole Fighter: Designed for air superiority, interception, and strike missions, offering versatility across combat scenarios.
• Carrier Operations: Analysts suggest the J-50 may be intended for deployment from People's Liberation Army Navy aircraft carriers, enhancing China's maritime strike capabilities.
• Unmanned Teaming Integration: Expected to operate alongside unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), leveraging AI for coordinated missions.
• Electronic Warfare & Networking: Potentially serves as a node in a broader network-centric warfare system, contributing to electronic attack and defense measures.