FCAS, c'est kaput! Are the US and China going to be the only ones building crewed stealth fighters in the future?

https://www.theguardian.com/.../france-and-germany...

Germany and France have abandoned their joint stealth fighter project FCAS (Future Combat Air System). It became clear the program was dead in the water months ago when German Chancellor Friedrich ⁠Merz ⁠said: "Will we still need a manned fighter jet in 20 years' time? Do we still need it, given that we ​will have to develop it at great expense?" 

Here is the case for NOT spending billions to build new fighter jets.

IT'S A DEAD END: The era of developing new crewed fighter jets is officially over—or at least, it should be. For NATO countries, sinking hundreds of billions into next-generation crewed air platforms is a strategic dead end. The math, the timeline, and the rapidly evolving nature of modern combat simply no longer add up for traditional aerospace projects.

IT WILL TAKE TOO LONG: To start, any clean-sheet crewed fighter jet program initiated today would face an incredibly long development runway. Given the immense bureaucratic, aerodynamic, and software complexities inherent in modern defense procurement, such an aircraft would not realistically achieve operational status until 2040 or beyond. By the time the first squadron is ready, the geopolitical and technological landscape will have completely outgrown them.

DRONES WILL RULE THE SKIES: We are already witnessing a massive shift toward autonomous systems. Right now, and increasingly in the decade to come, uncrewed drones and autonomous aircraft are taking over the exact mission sets once reserved exclusively for multi-role fighter jets. From Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and Close Air Support (CAS) to Combat Air Patrols (CAP) and complex missile interception, autonomous algorithms and disposable airframes are proving they can handle the risk without endangering human lives.

THE $$ DON'T ADD UP: The financial disparity between these two paradigms is staggering. Exquisite, 5th- and 6th-generation crewed platforms are prohibitively expensive when contrasted against the scalable economics of drone research and mass production (Heitzenrater, 2025). The capital required to design a single new jet type could instead fund an entire ecosystem of rapidly iterative, AI-driven autonomous systems.

Furthermore, the tail-end costs of crewed aviation are unsustainable. Beyond the multi-billion-dollar R&D phase, the life-cycle maintenance of legacy platforms requires intense mechanical upkeep—often demanding dozens of maintenance man-hours per individual flight hour. When you compound this with the fact that training a single pilot on a modern fighter like the F-35 costs upwards of 10 million USD, the fiscal burden becomes impossible to justify against cheaper, low-maintenance uncrewed fleets.

AIRCRAFT NEED TO COEXIST WITH SEA AND GROUND PLATFORMS AND THEY WILL ALL BE UNCREWED TOO: Ultimately, warfare as a whole is experiencing an irreversible migration toward uncrewed architectures. By 2040, crewed platforms will no longer be the standard; they will be the rare exception. This transition isn’t isolated to the skies, either. We are seeing the exact same pattern emerge across every domain of defense—from autonomous surface and subsurface vessels at sea to robotic combat vehicles on land. Future emphasis on interoperability will make it easier for uncrewed systems to share data links at speeds human pilots will not be able to follow.

WHY will the US still build crewed fighters? Jobs and $$$ in the big business legacy defense industry of course. Not current trends or future needs. And until the age of slaughterbots (robots with guns) dawns, we will still need infantry to hold ground.

If you want to hear what NATO nations should be doing in this space, listen to Christian Brose, the CEO of Anduril, the drone maker. Sure, he is speaking from self interest too, but tell me he doesn't make sense...

https://podcasts.apple.com/.../ep-259.../id1589160645...

OK! Hit me with your 'whattabout' responses! EG 'Yeah but drones can be jammed FX, whattabout that?!' Or 'Whattabout the UK/JAPAN/ITALY Tempest FX?! Or 'If uncrewed fighters are the future how come Star Wars movies still use pilots FX, whattabout that huh??'

Bring it...