Today the Ukraine-Russia war enters its fifth year. Either you believe Ukraine is winning and it should persevere, or you believe it is losing and should sue for peace. Which is it*?
(*I am summarizing consensus views here, not my own.)
đź’€The Case for "Ukraine is Losing"đź’€
Territory: The trend is one of (extremely) slow, grinding Russian progress. Ukraine has not regained significant territory since late 2022, and the defensive lines are under immense pressure in the Donbas. Compared with Ukraine, Russia has near limitless manpower reserves and unless its economy collapses (limited signs of that so far), Putin is banking on Russia outlasting Ukraine.
Lives: Ukraine faces a severe demographic crisis. With a smaller population than Russia, it cannot sustain a war of attrition indefinitely. Every soldier lost is a deeper wound to the country’s future recovery. After four years of war, young men approaching conscription age are fleeing the country, soldiers are deserting and though general conscription is needed, the government and public resist it. Ukraine has crippling manpower problems in the military, and in society.Â
Economy: The cost to Ukraine, and of supporting Ukraine, is astronomical. Over 30% of Ukraine's GDP was lost in the initial wake of the invasion. Infrastructure damage exceeds $150 billion, and the country is entirely dependent on unreliable Western political will for survival. EU loans needed to keep the lights on in Ukraine in 2026 are being held up by pro-Russian Hungary and Slovakia. It is hard to see how Ukraine's defense can be funded this year, let alone into the future.
🔥The Case for "Ukraine is Winning"🔥
Territory: After four years of war Russia occupies only 20% of the country and most of that was captured in the first year. Ukraine has successfully halted major advances over the last two years and even won back lost territory in the last couple of weeks. The "trend" is a static front where Russia pays an exorbitant price in equipment and men for increments of meters, not kilometers. At this "garden snail" pace, even reaching a major objective like Kyiv would take decades. As long as Ukraine survives as a sovereign nation, it is winning.
Lives: Proponents argue that the casualty ratio heavily favors Ukraine. By fighting a defensive war of attrition, Ukraine is systematically dismantling the Russian military’s long-term offensive capability. The harsh political reality is that Ukrainian lives are buying Europe time to arm itself to deter further Russian aggression. Putin's larger war aim was to push NATO back to its 1991 borders and rewrite the European security architecture. It is naive to think if victorious in Ukraine he would stop so whatever Ukraine does to frustrate this aim, is a victory for Ukraine, and Europe.
Economy: Ukraine remains integrated into the Western financial and security architecture. Despite the damage, its economy has stabilized with international aid, while Russia’s economy is increasingly distorted by defense industrial spending, total reliance on oil and gas revenues, and long-term isolation. An increasing willingness in the EU to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, to restrict Russia's resource revenues, and target its shadow fleet of oil and gas transports is bearing fruit. Putin's war is not economically sustainable. He will eventually have to settle for peace on terms more favorable to Ukraine than his current maximalist demands.
So where do you land? Is Ukraine winning? Or should it cut its losses and sue for peace?
All wars end. A ceasefire will come eventually. Ukraine's PM, Zelensky, is convinced Russia would resume its war after regrouping. He told the BBC this week, ""It would probably satisfy him for a while... he needs a pause... but once he recovers, our European partners say it could take three to five years. In my opinion, he could recover in no more than a couple of years. Where would he go next? We do not know, but that he would want to continue is a fact."
⚔️In that scenario, what would happen if the Coalition of the Willing (NATO nations) responded with RESOLVE at the first signs of renewed agression. What if they called Russia's bluff instead of dithering and delaying? Here's what that could look like:
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Sources used to prepare this post:
Russia Matters (Harvard Kennedy School) - Feb 2026 Report