Wish I could say I didn't call this one. On Jan 3 I wrote a 'year ahead' set of predictions which included this:
Iran: Israel will try to derail Iran’s nuclear weapons research program in 2025. Israel’s attacks on Iran and its proxies, whether you believe them justified and effective or not, have played into the hands of hardliners within the Iranian regime, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC. Iran will now see nuclear weapons as the best deterrent against further Israeli aggression, and without the prospect of sanctions being lifted, will attempt to accelerate its weapons research program, supported by North Korea and Russia. While Iran recovers from the Israeli offensives of 2024, Israel will use the window of opportunity in 2025 to try to derail that program, with US-supported attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Consequence: instability and conflict in the Middle East will be entrenched.
Fordow Nuclear Facility: A High-Stakes Target. Those centrifuges sit deep under the dome of the mountain.
Fast forward to June 2025. There is much talk right now of whether or not the US would provide Israel with the bomb(s) it needs to actually get the job done destroying Iran's nuclear research program, since all Israel has been able to do so far is, literally, scratch the surface.
But as I write, the US is moving the pieces into place, and the US President has left th G7 meeting early to attend a meeting of his national security council.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/nimitz-tankers-iran-israel/
Located deep within the mountains of Iran, the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility is a fortified stronghold. To penetrate its reinforced bunkers, a s
pecialized bomb would be needed—likely a bunker-buster with massive penetration power.
Bomb of Choice: GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) This 14 ton bomb is designed specifically for hardened targets like Fordow, able to burrow hundreds of feet underground before detonating. Could they blow the top off the mountain? No. But they could collapse the facility's entrances and ventilation shafts, disrupt the power supply and take Iran's centrifuges off line for months, or years.
Specs:
Weight: 30,000 lbs (13,600 kg)
Length: 20 feet (6 meters)
Diameter: 1.5 feet (46 cm)
Penetration: Capable of reaching depths over 200 feet of reinforced concrete.
Purpose: To breach hardened facilities deep underground, disrupting operations with unparalleled precision and force. Several strikes would be needed.
But delivering such a heavyweight weapon with accuracy is not something Israel can do. Only the trained crews of the US B-2 Spirit Bomber, the primary platform for the GBU-57A/B, or the B-52 Stratofortress are capable of that. This isn't like providing HIMARS to Ukraine, the US administration would have to both authorize the use of the bombs and agree to deliver the strikes.
Would Iran's Arab neighbors do more than quietly protest? Unlikely. Iran has few friends outside Russia and China, and Russia has already symbolically washed its hands of Iran, with its response to the Israeli strikes so far being to tell Iran to 'go back to negotiations with USA'. Iran's Arab neighbors are either neutral (Emirates, Jordan, Egypt) or openly hostile (Saudi Arabia) and would not be included to materially react.
Is there a precedent? Several. The US deployed B-2s for airstrikes in Syria as recently as December 2024. October 16, 2024, U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers conducted precision strikes against five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. And in Feb 2024, in retaliation for a drone attack in Jordan that resulted in the deaths of three U.S. soldiers, U.S. forces launched strategic bomber strikes against Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq and Syria.
Israel claims to have achieved air dominance over Iran now. I would not bet on US staying out of this war if it sees the chance to take Irans nuclear program.
What are Iran's options? Scary, actually. They will still have ballistic missiles, and a considerable stockpile of enriched uranium. They could easily, probably already have, developed 'dirty bomb' irradiated warheads for their ballistic missiles, which they could unleash on US bases in the Middle East. So any US involvement is not without considerable risk.
How might Iranian retaliation for a regime threatening US strike look? I covered this in 'FULCRUM', and it isn't pretty.
https://www.amazon.com/Fulcrum-epic-conclusion-Aggressor-Book-ebook/dp/B0CW18RJVD