Have you been sitting there, like me, wondering why these supposedly sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems deployed in the Ukraine war, like the American Patriot, and Russian S-400, are unable to shoot each other's aircraft down? (No, OK, it's just me then?) I dug into it a little and the answer is quite simple, with big implications for future warfare.

Despite their long-range kill potential, both sides have scored very few shootdowns of fixed-wing aircraft. Here’s the low down:

 What they are:

The Patriot (U.S.-made) and S-400 (Russian) are advanced long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems designed to detect, track, and destroy aircraft or missiles at distances up to 200–400 km. Other relevant systems include the S-300, NASAMS, Buk, Tor, and Iris-T.

 Standoff tactics dominate

Jets are rarely entering these SAM's kill zones. Russian Su-34s launch glide bombs from 60–70 km behind the front. Ukrainian jets fire Storm Shadows and immediately retreat. They not risking a shoot down.

 Radar horizon limits detection

Ground-based radars can't see below the curvature of the Earth. Low-flying jets only appear on radar at 30–40 km, or ingress at low level, popping up only briefly, making long-range interception nearly impossible.

 Are Patriots & S‑400s being wiped out by antiradiation missiles?

Perhaps both sides are limiting the effectiveness of their systems by keeping them shut down to avoid attracting anti-radiation missile attacks? No. Missiles like the HARM are designed specifically to kill S-400s from a claimed range of 150km away. Ukraine got them early in the war and adapted them to fire from its Russian fighter fleet, then its F-16s. They haven't been effective.

Against Russia’s S‑400, U.S. ATACMS (M39 cluster variant) has been the most effective, destroying at least 17 launchers, 7 radars, and 2 command posts across Crimea, Luhansk, and Belgorod. Drones help locate targets. Against Ukraine’s Patriot systems, Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles have proven most successful—destroying at least 2 launchers in Donbas and damaging others since 2023 (probably using signals and satellite intel for targeting). Drones and cruise missiles probe air defenses but rarely land kills on them. Precision ballistic and cluster munitions win the SAM-killing game.

 SAMs used for deterrence, not attrition

Patriot batteries are prioritized for missile defense over cities. S-400s are positioned to deter intrusions, not to score daily kills. High cost + risk of detection = limited engagement.

 Conclusions:

Real food for thought for a Future War author. Patriot and S-400 have shaped the air war through denial, not destruction. Both sides fear them, and avoid them. Long-range SAMs are excellent at forcing enemy aircraft to adapt—but rarely shoot them down since both sides are avoiding each other's territory. 

For all the same reasons, we have never seen a major furball - fighter v fighter - in this war. 

And, HARM missiles only work if you dare put your aircraft in HARM's way (see what I did there?)

#militarytech #ukrainewar #airdefense #patriot #S400 #EW #SAM #standoffwarfare #geopolitics