Peace in our time? What a deal with Iran needs to look like.
What they said: Various credible sources are reporting a 'memorandum of understanding' between Iran and USA was signed digitally today and will be signed physically Friday 6.19, cementing a ceasefire in place, lifting Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and US blockade of Iran, and beginning 60 days of negotiations between the parties.
What it means: commerce through the Strait, which was free and open before the start of Feb hostilities, will eventually be open again (whether 'free' will depend on negotiations, since Qatar and Iran are holding separate discussions on whether to levy 'navigation fees.')
On the issues which the US/Israeli governments listed as reasons for going to war, here is what to look for in the coming negotiations...
Iran nuclear capabilities (compared with the IAEA verified JCPOA agreement - aka 'the Obama deal' - cancelled by first Trump administration):
- JCPOA included a declaration by Iran it will not pursue nuclear weapons. This is expected to be required again, but means nothing since Iran has always said it does not have this ambition, and the previous Ayatollah even issued a 'fatwah' against development of nuclear weapons.
- JCPOA capped the number of standard uranium enrichment centrifuges at 6,000 and advanced centrifuges to zero
- JCPOA capped low-enriched uranium to 300kg
- JCPOA capped highly-enriched uranium at zero.
- JCPOA released $6bn in frozen Iranian assets on signing, and created a pathway to release 'up to' $100bn if all milestones were met and validated.
- JCPOA lifted US imposed nuclear related sanctions, but not 'secondary' sanctions related to missile production, human rights abuses and support for proxies. JCPOA also included 'snap back' mechanisms for sanctions if milestones were not met.
So those are the benchmarks the new deal needs to be better vs 'the Obama deal.' Others the US has floated:
Iran missile capabilities
Constraints on numbers of Iranian ballistic missiles (short to long range) without US agreeing to draw down forces stationed in Gulf bases in return.
Iran proxies / hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon
Iran will be asked to support disarmament of Hezbollah and Hamas. Forget this, never going to happen because Israel is not part of the negotiations and would not agree to limits to its right to defend itself against attacks by these proxies
Possible wild cards in US 'ask' (also unlikely to make final cut)
Limits on rearmament: 'treaty of versailles' style limits on naval tonnage, number of 'fast boats', mines, drone production, air force
Possible wild cards in Iranian 'ask' (also unlikely to make final cut)
- Reparations for war damages or rebuilding assistance
- Right to levy fees on commercial traffic in Strait of Hormuz
- Lifting of all sanctions, not just nuclear related
- Reduction in US Gulf bases and force numbers
- Removal of all restrictions on peaceful use of nuclear energy
Conclusion: agreement within 60 days is highly unlikely. The JCPOA agreement took three years to negotiate. Both parties have an incentive to draw the negotiation out - Iran to get a better deal, the US administration to push any final deal out beyond US November mid-term elections if it looks like it would need to give any concessions to Iran.
Highly probable: a US return to limited hostilities if it feels the negotiations are not proceeding to its advantage / Iran renewed threat to Strait of Hormuz if it feels the same way.
(For a great summary on who were the winners and losers from this conflict so far, listen to this Telegraph podcast with a panel that includes Gen Ben Hodges, the former commander of US Forces Europe.)