Waning powers

The concept of the "superpower" has dominated global geopolitical architecture for nearly a century. Historically, a superpower is defined as a nation-state possessing such overwhelming military, economic, and technological might that it can project power and assert its political will globally, dictating terms to smaller nations with near-total impunity.

Yet, if you take away the threat of nuclear weapons. a fundamental question emerges: Do the current nations that claim this mantle—the United States, China, and Russia—actually still qualify?

It can be argued the traditional definition of a superpower has broken down. The ability of a dominant nation to use conventional military force to compel smaller states into submission has been structurally undermined. The rapid proliferation of low-cost drones, precision missiles, and asymmetric or hybrid warfare capabilities has effectively neutralized the massive air and naval superiority that superpowers once relied upon to enforce their will.

Three modern conflicts demonstrate this shift:

Russia and Ukraine

Despite possessing what was on paper an overwhelming superiority in air power, missile inventory, armor, and sheer manpower, Russia has proven unable to overcome Ukraine. Ukrainian defensive ingenuity, deeply anchored by western air defense systems, and tactical innovation in cheap, mass-produced first-person view (FPV) and long-range drones, advanced surveillance and use of data to shape the battlefield, has systematically blunted Russia's mechanized offensives, crippled its supply lines and neutralized traditional air superiority, turning a projected quick campaign into a war of attrition.

China and Taiwan

A similar calculus deters Beijing. China boasts the world’s largest navy by hull count and an air force vastly larger than Taiwan's. Yet, Chinese leadership remains hesitant to use military force, knowing that a cross-strait invasion risks a rapid, high-tech humiliation similar to what occurred in Ukraine and Iran. The defense-dominant nature of modern anti-air, anti-ship missiles and drone swarms makes the invasion of a smaller, well-prepared island an incredibly hazardous gamble, freezing China's regional ambitions.

The United States and Iran

The recent conflict spanning from February to June 2026 may provide another example. Despite the U.S. wielding arguably the most advanced conventional military machine in history, and despite Iran possessing virtually no modern conventional air force, easily overcome air defenses, and losing its primary naval surface combatants within the opening days of the hostilities, the war did not end in a clear superpower victory. Instead, Iran leveraged dense drone and missile swarms to inflict significant costs, waged economic war using its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and ultimately secured a controversial peace deal. The U.S. has now agreed to lift its naval blockade and withdraw its forces to begin negotiations, without achieving its threatened "complete capitulation of Iran."

The Failure of Economic Coercion

It is not merely a failure of conventional military projection; the threat of economic force is also a rubber mallet. The massive scale of a nation's GDP no longer guarantees superpower status. While China, the EU and the US remain economic heavyweights, their ability to force capitulation via economic warfare has proven to be less useful than they would like.

• Sanctions Evasion: As demonstrated extensively by both Russia and Iran, global supply networks are too decentralized to control. Targeted nations quickly construct alternative financial clearing systems and shadow fleets sidestep Western blocks, while malleable 'allied nations' act as conduits for sanctioned goods and funds. Crypto transactions allow nations to sidestep barriers imposed in traditional banking systems.
• The Tariff Paradox: Punitive tariffs have proven to be a double-edged sword. It can be strongly argued that trade tariffs punish the nation applying them just as heavily as the target country, given that domestic businesses and consumers within the tariffing country ultimately absorb the added costs.

Conclusion: A Dangerous Transition Ahead

There is an Israeli saying: If force doesn't work, use more force. Which can be a tempting deceit for a superpower feeling its powers waning.

The days when a superpower could park a carrier strike group off the coast of a smaller nation, institute a naval blockade or economic sanctions, and confidently expect a rapid capitulation are over. Even a full scale invasion such as that conducted by Russia cannot guarantee victory. Conventional coercion is failing across the globe.

What lies ahead is a highly volatile landscape. Deprived of reliable conventional and economic tools to enforce dominance, these waning superpowers are left with only one true mechanism to assert absolute geopolitical dominance: their nuclear arsenals. Reports indicating that Russian leadership has already actively discussed the potential employment of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine highlight this possible desperation. As the self-image of the superpower wanes, and the old superpowers struggle to get their way, the world enters a significantly more dangerous era where the nuclear threshold that has held for years, may be tested.