Hey there!

Wow, crazy year already, right, and it's only January. Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland ... I have to admit the news is coming so fast I tune it out sometimes to immerse myself in research and writing. And then I tune in again and ... Iran. My thoughts on that one are at the end of this newsletter if you are interested.

But what's next regarding FX Holden novels? I am about 2/3rds finished with BLUE SHIELD, my next 'What-if' speculative novel after World War H. These are novels that spring from asking myself 'what-if?' In this case, assuming some kind of security guarantees are offered to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire, what-if Russia breaks the ceasefire and NATO nations actually step up and call Russia's bluff?

You can pre-order BLUE SHIELD today, get the ebook half price, and help a starving author's book off to a good launch!

US https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

UK https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

CA: https://www.amazon.ca/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

AU: https://www.amazon.com.au/Blue-Shield-What-if-Thriller-Thrillers-ebook/dp/B0G3LDN8DG

Next up is one for the Bunny O'Hare fans, a follow up to Antarctica STORM and Africa STORM: Global STORM.

The setup: Aggressor Inc.'s billionaire owner, Mark Aaronsen, has entered the space race and licensed US antimatter tech to power the first crewed mission to Mars. But he needs a volunteer for the test flight. Who would be crazy enough to put their hand up for what could be a one-way ticket to eternity? Who else...

This novel will see anti-hero Karen 'Bunny' O'Hare catapulted into a new and terrifying conflict, from which she will not return.

(And speaking of new and terrifying conflicts...)

What is happening inside Iran as the US military buildup continues?

Here's a former intel officer's take. A month ago I wrote: "The US (and Israel) will increase covert support for protest groups inside Iran. Unless drought conditions in the Tehran region ease, the city will face apocalyptic water shortages  and regime continuity will be threatened. This creates an opportunity for US/Israeli military or covert intelligence operations — assassinations, sabotage, and destabilization."

That's what's happening right now. As the carrier strike group moves in, the US CIA and Israeli Mossad are actively working with protest organizers inside Iran to ensure they are prepared if/when US military strikes aimed at destabilising the regime are used. That's why the US is not rushing to put the pieces in place (they could attack tomorrow with assets already in theater if they wanted to) - influence and destablisation networks take time to co-opt, activate and prepare.

But what comes next? Fantastic analysis by Frank Gardener of the BBC here on 7 possible outcomes:

audio https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/p0mxv9j2

article https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3kenge1k9o

In short, they are:

1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy

2. Regime survives but moderates its policies 'Venezuela style'

3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule (a highly likely outcome)

4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbours

5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf

6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship

7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos (doomsday scenario, also highly possible)

Which of these do YOU think are most likely?