"Sometimes history moves so fast it's impossible to know tomorrow what will happen yesterday." Satirist Darth Putin.

In January I made a set of predictions about the coming year in geopolitics! 

https://fxholden.com/.../predictions-for-2025-i-have-a...

I got one wrong (too optimistic) and several right. Let's look back (red, got it wrong; green, got it right; yellow 'undecided')...

Ukraine: I predicted the 'Coalition of the Willing' would make a peace guarantee to Ukraine and there would be a (possibly brief) ceasefire. That never happened. Instead the war grinds on, the US transitioned from donating arms to selling them via the EU, Ukraine now makes 60% of its own weapons and Putin shows no real intention to seek peace or even a ceasefire, holding out for complete Ukrainian capitulation. This has been so frustrating, I had to write a book about it: https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Shield.../dp/B0G3LDN8DG

Syria: I predicted the overthrow of Assad would result in civil war and it did/does. The new interim govt holds only Damascus, Homs and coast, Syrian Democratic Forces hold the northeast, Hayat Tahrir al‑Sham (HTS) holds the northwest, while Syrian National Army (SNA) & Turkish-backed rebel forces hold parts of the north and Aleppo. 

Iran: I wrote "Israel will use the window of opportunity in 2025 to try to derail the Iranian nuclear program, with US-supported attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities." And it did.

Taiwan: I predicted China would continue its military buildup (it did) and nothing would happen regarding Taiwan (and it didn't.) So far in 2025 China has launched the carrier Fujian, at least two new frigates of class Type 054B frigate and a large amphibious assault ship Sichuan (class Type 076) entered sea-trials. In addition, it announced operational readiness for its new J-35 naval stealth fighter. 

Myanmar/Burma: I predicted the military govt would collapse. It is in the process of falling apart, but still hanging on. It's control of territory in Burma has reduced from 40% in January to 20% today - the junta’s territorial control has shrunk to isolated cores; rebels now hold contiguous swathes rather than scattered pockets, complicating junta’s overland reach. It's a matter of months before the Junta flees for Macau. Check the news today, they may already have done so.

Sudan: I predicted the uneasy peace would erupt into total war again, and sadly, it did.

How did your predictions unfold?

Predictions for 2025 will come in January! Ukraine won't feature - it's a crapshoot - but Venezuela might

Until then, have a nice holiday break (I'll be Down Under visiting family) see you in the New Year!

Cheers,

FX