Last year my predictions for what would happen in the conflicts in Sudan, Burma, Iran and Syria all came to pass. Unfortunately, some would say! So what do I see happening in the major conflicts of 2026?
Ukraine
In 2025 Russian troops advanced at (literally) less than a snail's pace, at enormous cost in lives and rubles. Russia will continue to make slow, costly progress in 2026 until Putin is stopped, more likely by his worsening economy than any intervention by external forces. Only then might he agree a ceasefire — purely to allow his economy to recover, and his shattered military to regenerate. He will therefore have a big focus in any negotiations on obtaining economic concessions (reduced sanctions, readmission to G8, unfreezing of assets) as a precondition for a ceasefire, and may be willing to compromise on his maximalist ceasefire conditions if he gets these. Likewise the pressure on Ukraine from its western partners to accept onerous ceasefire conditions may be irresistible.
But if China, India (and some EU states) continue to prop up Russia's economy with petrogasdollars, and Ukraine's resolve remains intractable, the war will simply grind on. Chances of a ceasefire in 2026? Low, but not zero.
Venezuela
The US administration has already achieved its first priority in this conflict, the removal of the dictator Maduro, forcing his government to “bend the knee” to Washington and allow US oil companies and other commercial interests back in on advantageous terms. If the surviving Maduro regime is perceived as difficult to deal with, military action to remove it and install a US-friendly regime will follow.
Next in the crosshairs — not Cuba (there is little more the US can do to pressure Cuba short of invasion). A more likely target for economic and military pressure is Colombia . To quote the US President's warning to Colombian President Gustavo Petro: “He better watch his ass.”
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Greenland
The US will not invade or annex Greenland. It doesn’t have to in order to “acquire” it during the current Presidential term. Citing national/international security concerns, the US might remilitarize Greenland — reopening closed bases and airfields and ramping up its military presence. This can be done already with virtually no restrictions under its existing treaty with Denmark. But the international security issue is a red herring, this is simply about future control of resources.
So, US influence operations will intensify. In 2026 or early 2027, while pushing for a referendum on joining USA, the US will again “offer to buy Greenland” — not via Denmark, but directly to Greenland’s 54,000 residents using tactics like checks paid directly to Greenland citizens, offers of massive US investment, shares in a US-backed sovereign wealth fund, and eventual statehood . Active resistance from Denmark will be met with sanctions and tariffs. The EU will protest — and as usual, do nothing.
Russian hybrid war vs Ukraine-supporting nations (EU, UK)
Due to lack of meaningful response from EU and UK this will intensify, with a growing number of acts of sabotage, undersea cable breaks, cyber and infrastructure attacks and assassinations. These attacks will continue unless the EU/UK respond in kind with counter-attacks inside Russia, which they will not do.
Iran
The US (and Israel) will increase covert support for protest groups inside Iran. Unless drought conditions in the Tehran region ease, the city will face apocalyptic water shortages and regime continuity will be threatened. This creates an opportunity for US/Israeli military or covert intelligence operations — assassinations, sabotage, and destabilization.
A Maduro-style capture of one or more senior military or clerical leaders is possible. Recall what the US President wrote during the 12-day war: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” After Venezuela, that threat has to be taken seriously and that day may come in 2026 .
Myanmar
After losing control of roughly 80% of the country in 2025, the junta is experiencing waning support from traditional allies such as China and Russia. It will collapse in 2026. Its leaders will flee — to Beijing (Macau casinos) or Moscow . Chaos, not peaceful elections, will follow as rival rebel factions vie for power.
Gaza
The US-brokered ceasefire is fragile and will effectively collapse in 2026. Hamas has refused — and will continue to refuse — to disarm. Israel will not withdraw from the 50% of Gaza it still controls. Full-scale conflict will resume, framed by the US and Israel as a “limited operation to disarm Hamas” .
Sudan
Deeply fragmented, persistent hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces will continue, driving a worsening humanitarian catastrophe .
Yemen
Saudi Arabia backs the internationally recognised Yemeni government. The UAE has aligned with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has fought Saudi-backed forces. The two Gulf states are now toe-to-toe in a proxy war for influence inside Yemen — ensuring the conflict drags on through 2026.
Black Swan events
I missed the Syria-Assad collapse in 2024 predictions. Low probability but high impact risks do exist for 2026: a high intensity military conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea as China flexes its new naval muscles; a Pakistan military coup; and a Mexican cartel vs government 'civil war' are all possible. (And potential grounds for a Future War novel!)
Any good news FX?
Yes! Plenty! Low-level border conflicts between India–Pakistan and Thailand–Cambodia will persist, but NOT intensify in 2026. North and South Korea will do little more than exchange threats, drones and balloons. And though increasingly bellicose, China is not yet ready — or able — to invade Taiwan.
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