I have a regrettable reputation for being able to predict changes in the geopolitical winds stretching back to the fall of the Soviet Union (called it in 1989) up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (called it in 2021). My geopolitical spirit guide fails me sometimes - eg I totally missed the fall of the Assad regime in 2024. But FWIW here are my predictions for 2025!

Ukraine: the brave Ukrainian defense forces are being ground down in Russia’s war of attrition and in 2025 will need to sue for peace with Russia. Russia will give up none of the territories it has occupied, nor will it give up its ambition to see a Russian-friendly regime in Kyiv. Ukraine will only agree to negotiations if it receives a defense security guarantee from a larger power. NATO will not step up to meet that need, instead a smaller pact will be signed between a subset of the 10 EU nations that is part of the European Union Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC), a battle group of rapid deployment troops which goes live in 2025. The EU will station a rapid deployment battle group in Poland or a Baltic state, not Ukraine, as a deterrent to further Russian aggression. This ‘deterrent’ will prove inadequate and unless the Ukraine government falls because of Russian inspired hybrid warfare, the conflict will resume after 2025. Consequence: Europe faces years of further confrontation with Russia.

Syria: Expect to see similar developments to those in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi. As in Libya, the new Syrian Transitional Government has promised elections, but the constitution needs to be rewritten first. Disparate rebel groupings in Syria’s provinces will fill the vacuum left by Syria’s armed forces and police, leading to a patchwork of armed movements vying for regional influence, and supported by meddling international actors such as Russia, Iran and Turkey. 2025 will see these actors jockeying for influence in advance of elections. Consequence: a new civil war either preceding or following the eventual elections, is sadly inevitable.

Iran: Israel will try to derail Iran’s nuclear weapons research program in 2025. Israel’s attacks on Iran and its proxies, whether you believe them justified and effective or not, have played into the hands of hardliners within the Iranian regime, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC. Iran will now see nuclear weapons as the best deterrent against further Israeli aggression, and without the prospect of sanctions being lifted, will attempt to accelerate its weapons research program, supported by North Korea and Russia. While Iran recovers from the Israeli offensives of 2024, Israel will use the window of opportunity in 2025 to try to derail that program, with US-supported attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Consequence: instability and conflict in the Middle East will be entrenched.

Taiwan: Nothing to see here. China is still building its capabilities to allow it to pose a credible military threat to a US-backed Taiwan. It will commission a third aircraft carrier and multiple destroyers and submarines in 2025, and continue to build up its long range missile and artillery forces, while challenging western navies and air forces freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. If you are looking for indicators China is preparing to force the issue of Taiwan reunification watch for these two: Chinese economic sanctions against Taiwan, or Chinese military involvement in a foreign conflict to test its force readiness.

Myanmar/Burma: In 2025 Burma’s military junta will collapse, possibly with the same speed as Assad’s forces in Syria, as China withdraws its support for the regime. Often forgotten, this civil war has led to the third highest number of fatalities in 2024 (approx 20,000) and the junta’s military now controls only 40 percent of the country. It has been in retreat since 2021, with province after province falling to rebels. Consequence: Junta leaders will flee to China or India in 2025 and rebel factions will jockey for control of government.

Sudan: After several years of sporadic but bloody conflict, with 15,000 dead in 2024, the two main actors, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will enter a phase of total war in 2025. Both sides have ruled out a negotiated settlement, and after a lull in fighting during which both sides rearmed and restructured, full scale war will resume, with the SAF supported by Egypt, and the RSF (allegedly) by the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Consequence: the war will be unlikely to draw in major western powers but will result in a humanitarian catastrophe.

And the good news: Western Europe, Central and South America are free of major conflicts, as are Oceania, Antarctica and North America. 2024 was also a year of amazing things: we gathered rocks from the far side of the moon, SpaceX perfected the vertical spaceship landing thing, it was a great year for watchers of the northern lights, another lost Mayan city was discovered, Los Angeles coped with a half year of rain in a single day thanks to flood mitigation works, weight loss drugs showed they also protect against heart disease and stroke and adult obesity in western countries fell for the first time, the worlds largest sailing ship crossed the Atlantic on wind power, globally airlines set a new record for on time arrivals, Chad eliminated sleeping sickness, the Iberian Lynx is no longer an endangered species, Hawaiian crows are getting even smarter, there are no signs the US will go into recession in 2025, gas prices are predicted to fall again in 2025 for the third straight year in a row, and after a couple of cuts, the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates!