The main battle tank, behemoth of the battlefield, is dead. Long live the drone. That is the Ukrainian army's conclusion after three years of full scale war with Russia.
After early and heavy losses from anti-tank missiles like the Javelin in the early stages of the Ukraine war, many analysts asked whether the main battle tank still had a place on the modern battlefield. Others cautioned against declaring the death of the tank too quickly, like this author in 2022.
https://cepa.org/article/the-tanks-death-has-been-exaggerated/
But now it is 2025 and three years of brutal war has led Ukraine to conclude that even the highly capable main battle tanks (MBTs) supplied to it by the west have limited value in a war where drones rule the skies, and they are rethinking how to use the MBT in a 'total rewriting of Ukrainian tank doctrine for the drone era.' See the Forbes article or read my summary below:
- Ukraine has now lost more than 1,000 tanks in battle, most to drones which are 'everywhere, all the time.' (For comparison, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that Russia has lost 4,400 main battle tanks based on visually confirmed open source reporting.)
- Constant drone surveillance over the battlefield has made it impossible to assemble large concentrations of armor
- Ukrainian tank commanders now use their vehicles either as mobile artillery supporting infantry, or as 'ambush predators,' hiding inside buildings and rolling out to attack, before retreating into cover again to hide from drones.
- Armored divisions are being dissolved and their tanks disbursed, attached instead in platoon strength to mechanized infantry divisions and regiments.
"Ukraine’s tanks are dispersing on the battlefield—spreading out and hiding to avoid detection by drones—and also dispersing within the Ukrainian military’s force structure: playing more of a supporting role than a lead role in a war increasingly shaped by tiny, lethal robots. The end result should be a somewhat smaller overall tank corps with fewer vehicles and fewer crews, but which is better suited for the kind of war Ukraine is waging."
There may of course be supporting factors leading to the demise of the MBT. Ukraine is pressed for manpower, and is having to choose between training infantry and drone operators, against four person tank crews. Compared to deploying an FPV drone squad, tanks are expensive to maintain and repair, which will be even more of a factor in a future where Ukraine is expected by allies to bear more of its own war costs. For Russia's part, tank starvation is an issue given unsustainable battlefield losses. Its 2025 Victory Day parade featured almost no armored vehicles, as most are on the the front line in Ukraine, It started the war with 3,000 operational MBTs, and even after drawing down its cold war stocks and allowing for new tanks produced, it is now assessed to have fewer than 2,000.
For comparison, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported in 2024 that Russia had trained 5,000 FPV drone squads. The same year, Ukraine stood up a dedicated Unmanned Systems Forces (Drone) Command and deployed six drone battalions with more than 10,000 personnel.
This is a good time to ask your local politician, how many drone battalions does our (insert country here) army have?
So is 2025 the year we finally declare the main battle tank 'armored fist' concept dead? These developments and more will be the subject of speculation in the next Aggressor Inc. novel, Africa STORM - coming December 2025!