Historians and analysts who looks for precedents will tell you the historical record of air power suggests that while a "strategic air offensive" can degrade an adversary’s military and industrial capacity, it is almost never a sufficient tool for forcing regime change on its own.
They will cite the failure of Germany's WW2 Blitz, the Allies Strategic Bombing of Germany, or Russia's missile and drone campaign in Ukraine. They'll tell you 'sure' the NATO air campaign in Serbia/Kosovo in 1999 resulted months later in the removal of Slobodan Milošević, but that was the result of a well-organized internal democratic opposition (Otpor), and the credible threat of a looming NATO ground invasion, neither of which are the case in Iran.
But here's where it MIGHT work: redefine 'regime change' along the lines the US recently achieved in Venezuela. Call it the FLIP model - the removal of the current hostile leadership and its replacement with one more 'amenable'. THAT could be possible.
One scenario that fits the FLIP model is the "Praetorian Coup" scenario which sees the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) so existentially weakened that to survive, its officers sideline the clerical establishment to transform the state from a theocracy into a military-led nationalist autocracy.
This transition would require a leadership vaccuum such as the Supreme Leader's death (check) and the clerics' nomination of a candidate the military doesn't support (pending). The IRGC must fail to inflict severe damage on its enemies (pending) and there has to be sufficient attrition of the IRGC's capabilities/leadership that it sees an existential threat to its ability to retain power (underway). And so it FLIPS - ditches the clerics in a palace coup, installing a military junta.
This "Western-leaning" shift would not be a transition to democracy, but rather a pivot toward a state model similar to Egypt’s, where the military maintains internal control while seeking international legitimacy to restart the economy.
The junta then makes a "survivalist bargain" regarding the nuclear program. To halt US or Israeli military strikes and trigger the lifting of crippling sanctions, the IRGC junta would offer to freeze or dismantle key nuclear assets in exchange for a ceasefire and economic guarantees. For the West, a "junta they can do business with" provides a more stable, predictable alternative to the chaos of a total state collapse or a protracted insurgency.
The people of Iran would be freed from religious oppression, but still find themselves living in an autocracy. That's still 'success' if the US/Israeli campaign objective is a Venezuelan style FLIP, not a transition to democracy.
But it aint going to be a cakewalk.
(Pictured, IRGC on parade.)
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