When it comes from NATO countries. Ukraine got security guarantees when it gave up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s. In the 2020s it got guarantees when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. Now it is being offered guarantees again. So you can excuse Ukraine for not exactly being optimistic! But exactly what kind of guarantees are being discussed?
Ukraine is apparently being offered a 'NATO Article 5–style security guarantee' to protect it from future Russian aggression.
That has VERY serious implications if it happens. Here's why...
Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all. Ukraine wants that same protection. Since accession is blocked for now, leaders have floated an “Article 5–type” commitment delivered through a coalition of guarantor states.
The guarantors would be European NATO members—Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics, France, Germany, the UK—those geographically closest and most exposed. They would pledge to respond militarily if Russia attacked Ukraine again, ending the ambiguity that Moscow has exploited.
Such a pact could be framed as a collective defense treaty or a set of binding bilateral commitments. The essence is deterrence: Moscow must see that another attack will not be a fight with Ukraine alone but with multiple European militaries armed to NATO standards.
**So, expect to see Russia do everything it can to frustrate this idea: protests, veto demands, impossibly insane counter proposals (Chinese peacekeepers anyone?), delays, threats of global nuclear annihilation... **
The credibility of the guarantee would rest on visible measures: joint exercises, contingency planning, pre-positioning of equipment, and rapid reaction protocols. Even if no Western troops are stationed permanently in Ukraine (they could also be pre-positioned in Poland or the Baltic states), the promise is that reinforcements and firepower would flow instantly in a crisis.
Yes, this would mean NATO nations, in direct conflict with Russia, in defence of Ukraine
The United States, while strongly ruling out troop deployments, remains indispensable. Washington’s support would include long-term weapons programs, steady resupply of munitions, and financing arrangements to keep Ukraine armed at scale. U.S. involvement is what makes the guarantee believable.
American backing would also mean real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance from satellites and electronic assets. Training and doctrinal support would deepen Ukraine’s integration with NATO standards. Logistics, strategic lift, and cyber defense would ensure that European pledges can actually be executed.
Deterrence would also be extended through U.S. forces positioned in nearby NATO states. American aircraft, naval power, and missile defense can surge in a crisis, projecting strength without crossing into Ukraine eg with the threat of enforcing air exclusion zones. This allows Washington to sustain its role as arsenal and backbone while keeping its soldiers off Ukrainian soil.
The challenges are political will and endurance. European allies must maintain unity and readiness to make their pledge credible, while the U.S. must signal consistency across administrations. Ukraine, for its part, has insisted that any deal must “work in practice like Article 5,” not as vague assurances. And it would require NATO EU countries to commit something equivalent to the existing NATO Response Force (NRF): about 40,000 troops, with a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) core that can deploy within days. That commitment is not yet in place.
If done well, such a guarantee would reshape Moscow’s calculus. By making it clear that another attack triggers a collective Western response, the gray zone that invited aggression in 2014 and 2022 would close. The Kremlin would face a simple equation: attack Ukraine, fight Europe—with U.S. power in support.
Russia at war with EU NATO members? We hope, never. But FX Holden has got you -
https://www.amazon.com/The-Aggressor-Series/dp/B0BTFP658H
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