I know writing a novel about a war that is ongoing is fraught with risk, but as with all novels in the 'What-if' series I could not stop myself wondering - what if NATO actually showed some ****?
The prospect of NATO joining the war now after 4 years of dithering is not realistic, so I decided to set Blue Shield two years after a hypothetical ceasefire: which we all know Russia would eventually break.
I wrote this as usual, as a warning, and as a wakeup call. As EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas famously said, “Putin will not stop, until someone stops him.' So, what if someone calls Putin's bluff and exposes his military for the paper tiger it is?
What right do I have to write a novel about Ukraine? None. But while I don’t claim first hand insight into the war, I do have some insight into Ukrainian émigré culture, from my youth as a football player, when I captained the Ukrainian Soccer Club (USC Lions) in Adelaide, Australia. It was there I learned how fiercely Ukrainians feel about their country, and their culture. How strong their loyalty is to each other. How amazingly brave and fearless they can be. And yes, how hard they can party!
I have closely studied the war in Ukraine and how it is fought out of both professional and personal interest. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Putin will bring his territorial ambitions to Europe, and my own family will be in the firing line. Moscow is only 2.5 hours’ flying time from where I am writing this. Two minutes for a Kinzhal launched from Russian Kaliningrad. I have skin in this game, and if you are reading this, I would argue you do too, no matter where you live.
On the tech
All of the technologies featured in this novel are either already deployed in the militaries of the combatants shown or in active development. Check the glossary for more details on individual platforms. Make sure to browse the comprehensive GLOSSARY that comes with all my novels!
Drone warfare features heavily in Blue Shield, of course. Ukraine is the undisputed world leader in drone warfare and innovations such as drone anti-jamming technology, autonomous terminal guidance or visual positioning systems. Ukraine also recently reported the world’s first documented example of an enemy soldier surrendering to a ground drone.
Western technologies discussed in this novel are all real, and highlight the massive capability gap between Western militaries and Russian. Russia cannot build true stealth aircraft, or new-generation tanks. Its most-used drones are designs adapted from Iran. It sends its soldiers to battle in Ukraine not in mechanized infantry vehicles anymore, but in stolen civilian sedans, on motocross bikes and quad bikes, or just on foot. Its air force and army are equipped with Cold War–era weapon systems. Even the much-hyped Oreshnik, featured in this novel, is nothing but a Cold War ballistic missile fitted with conventional instead of nuclear warheads.
But Russia has a massive manpower advantage, right?
In early March 2026 Russia massed its forces and launched its spring offensive. Two weeks later it culminated, beaten, with 35,000 Russian troops dead. Ninety percent were killed by Ukrainian drones. At the time of writing, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates Russia has lost as many as 325,000 killed, and 875,000 wounded, since 2022. That is already more casualties in this single conflict than the US sustained across all theaters in World War II.
But of course, Russia’s leader still retains the ability to unleash nuclear Armageddon on the West, destroying his own nation in the process. So should the West call Russia’s bluff in Ukraine, or allow Russian aggression to continue unchecked because of the threat its unstable regime might deploy nuclear weapons? I consider that a rhetorical question.
Blue Shield covers only the first phase of a possible new war with Russia. What happens next? Blue Shield 2: DNIPRO is coming in summer 2026!
FX Holden
Copenhagen 2026
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